Free-for-all for Issa’s open seat is most expensive House race in the nation at $14.9 million

May 31--The 16-candidate free-for-all to replace Congress' wealthiest member, retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, has become the most expensive House of Representatives race in the nation, with a combined $14.9 million spent by candidates and outside groups.

Given the seat's high stakes and recent political teetering, it figures.

A Democrat nearly flipped the perennially GOP seat last cycle, losing by only 1,621 votes, the narrowest margin of any federal race in 2016. In the same election, Hillary Clinton outperformed Donald Trump by 7 percentage points in the district. Now, smelling blood, national Democrats have poured money into the race for the coastal 49th Congressional District seat, targeting it as one of 23 districts they need to gain to retake the House.

* Top Democrats in the race.

* Top Republicans in the race.

Four Democrats, none of whom has held public office, declared candidacy last year, vying to take down Issa. But after the 18-year incumbent announced his retirement in January -- joining a mass exodus of Republican incumbents from Congress -- the contest became a quagmire. Eight Republicans entered the race, including four prominent GOP elected officials. And four independent candidates also have tagged along.

Only two of those competitors will advance past the June 5 primary to a November runoff. Given the glut of candidates, the margins between winners and losers might be slim. Adding to the intrigue is California's jungle primary system, which allows the top two vote-getters to move forward regardless of party, making it feasible for two Republicans -- and, less likely, two Democrats -- to face off in November.

The 49th District straddles Orange and San Diego counties, stretching from Dana Point down to La Jolla, and includes Camp Pendleton, making the seat home to a large population of military veterans. Republicans hold a 5 percentage point voter registration advantage -- a sizable 21,000-person margin that's, nonetheless, notably slimmer than the 14-point lead the GOP held only six years ago.

Four Republicans and four Democrats have emerged as top competitors.

The Republican favorites include Assemblyman Rocky Chavez of Oceanside, Board of Equalization member and former Assemblywoman Diane Harkey of Dana Point, San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar of Encinitas and San Juan Capistrano Councilman Brian Maryott, a retired financial adviser.

Top Democrats include Oceanside attorney and retired Marine colonel Doug Applegate, who narrowly lost to Issa last cycle; San Juan Capistrano environmental lawyer Mike Levin, a former executive director of the Orange County Democratic Party; Rancho Santa Fe real estate investor Paul Kerr, who has given and loaned his campaign $4.1 million, the third most of any House candidate; and 29-year-old former U.S. State Department contractor and education nonprofit CEO Sara Jacobs, who gave her campaign $1.6 million, the eighth most among all House contenders.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent nearly $1.6 million attacking Chavez, the top-polling Republican, according to the Federal Elections Commission. The strategy is a notable departure from the DCCC's approach in other competitive Southern California districts, where it has assailed second-place GOP candidates in an effort to consolidate Republican votes behind a single contender and avoid a top-two, all-GOP November ballot.

The TV attack ads have highlighted Chavez's vote for a bipartisan bill extending California's landmark cap-and-trade program in 2017. That has put national Democrats in the awkward position of attacking a GOP candidate for supporting Democrat-led legislation, causing some pundits to criticize the DCCC for discouraging bipartisan efforts.

To counteract those ads, the American Future Fund has spent $902,000 elevating Chavez and Harkey and opposing Gaspar, who has regularly finished as the third-ranking GOP candidate in recent polls. The American Future Fund is a conservative political nonprofit that supports free-market policies, doesn't disclose its donors and previously has been linked to the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch.

But the race's largest outside spending has come from a political action committee linked with Emily's List, a Super PAC that backs women who support abortion rights. The group has spent a whopping $2.3 million for its endorsed candidate, Jacobs. Those massive expenditures came after the candidate's grandfather, billionaire Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs, donated $1.25 million to the PAC. The spending has made Jacobs' TV ads ceaseless in San Diego, buoying her from a third-ranking Democrat to a contender.

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