Experts predict a near-normal Hurricane season

June 01--Hurricane season officially begins Friday, even though the year's first named storm -- Alberto -- already has arrived and departed.

One of the nation's leading seasonal forecast teams, the tropical meteorology forecasters at Colorado State University, has lowered the forecast number of storms for this season. That's good news for the many blue tarp-covered homes in Volusia and Flagler counties that are still awaiting new roofs in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma in 2017.

Still to Diane Melvin of DeBary, who has waited on a new roof and other repairs since Irma swept through last September, "it doesn't matter if the season is normal or not." Even one storm is too many, "when you don't have things done," said Melvin.

"I was very happy when that storm (Alberto) went past instead of coming this way," she said Thursday. Her roof and other repairs are scheduled to be complete next week.

Given the number of roofing companies still booked months out for roof replacements, the ongoing beach restoration in Flagler County, and the millions of dollars in outstanding FEMA payments to local governments and the school districts, the best situation would be all storms steer clear of Florida's east coast this year.

But don't count on it. Local emergency managers encourage residents not to wait to prepare for the season.

"Right now we've got the sales tax holiday for a week, you can get all your supplies in a non-stressful environment," said Jim Judge, Volusia County's emergency management director. "You can get ready for the season and that way you reduce the stress and anxiety of waiting until the last minute, when the wind is beginning to blow."

The sales tax holiday starts Friday and ends June 7.

Here's a look at what forecasters are saying, the changes the National Hurricane Center will make to its warning products, and other interesting bits of information about the season, which runs from now to Nov. 30.

What does the tropical meteorology team at Colorado State University --Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell -- say about the number of likely storms this season? The team on Thursday decreased its forecast and called for a near-average season in the Atlantic, with 13 additional named storms, six of which could become hurricanes and two of which could reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

Why the reduction in the forecast? Abnormally cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. The tropical Atlantic cooled over the past two months and is colder than normal, which provides less fuel for developing tropical cyclones and contributes to a more stable atmosphere and drier air, two things that suppress formation of thunderstorms that help hurricanes develop.

What are Colorado State's forecasts based on? Current data and 60 years of historical data, including sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels and the presence of El Nino or La Nina activity in the Pacific Ocean.

What's happening at the National Hurricane Center? The Center's forecasts continue to improve, with the forecast margin of error decreasing by 20 to 25 percent for its 1 -- 5 day forecasts since the start of its Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project WHEN . The Center has seen improvements in the HWRF model, with a 15 to 20 percent improvement in hurricane intensity forecast accuracy each year since 2011. The improvements are partly a result of working with the teams that fly in to investigate storms to increase the amount of data collected and put into the forecast models.

What about the forecast cone? The size of the cone, which indicates track forecast error, will be smaller this year. That cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. The cone is swept out ahead of the storm location in a set of circles in 12-hour increments. The size of each circle is set by including two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over the previous five years.

Are there changes to the Center's forecast products this year? Yes. For starters, the Center's public advisory will now discuss the forecast track and intensity for a storm for 72 hours ahead rather than 48 hours. And, forecasters will have the flexibility to discuss the forecast as much as five days ahead if needed. The public advisory lists the general forecast, potential hazards and all coastal watches and warnings.

The Center is extending its forecast for tropical storm and hurricane force winds further out in time and officially launch its graphic showing the expected arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds. That's an important tool for local emergency officials who must plan evacuations and other storm preparations.

What are four things you could do this weekend to get ready for the season?

--Prepare a written hurricane plan, including what your family would do if you had to evacuate.

--Check your insurance policy and make sure you're adequately covered.

--Put together supplies to last at least 72 hours without electricity.

--Take advantage of the sales tax holiday.

Where can you get specific information for Volusia and Flagler counties, including signing up for special needs assistance and alerts? Volusia.org/emergency and bit.ly/FlaglerEmergency

Where can you go if there's confusion about how to pronounce a storm name? Since the names are chosen from the languages represented throughout the Caribbean, pronunciation can be tricky. The Hurricane Center publishes a chart with the correct information: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf

Where can you follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter? Primarily three accounts -- @NWSNHC @NHC_Atlantic and @NHC_Surge

Where can you follow the Hurricane Center on the web? hurricanes.gov On Facebook? facebook.com/NWSNHC

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