GOP couldn’t ‘close the deal’ on midterm opportunity, analyst says

Independents helped Democrats in the midterms, analyst says.

By Susan Rupe

What happened to the “red wave” that pollsters had predicted would occur as a result of last week’s midterm elections?

One answer is that voters wanted change – but they didn’t want too much change.

Nathan Gonzales is editor and publisher of “Inside Elections,” which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Congress, governor and president. He gave his insights on the midterms during the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors’ National Leadership Conference in Washington.

Gonzales noted that 14 incumbent representatives were defeated in the 2022 primary election and eight were defeated in the general election. “The voters were primed for change but they didn’t say, ‘Let’s throw everyone out,’” he said.

Independent candidates also broke more toward Democratic candidates, which was the opposite of what pre-election polling said would happen, he added. Undecided and late-deciding voters also pushed election results against what pollsters had predicted.

The 2022 midterms were “a tremendous opportunity” for Republicans, Gonzales said. Midterms traditionally see the party in power lose seats in Congress.

"...In many of the key races, voters either didn’t want to punish Democrats for what they don’t like about President Biden or they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican.”Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher, Inside Elections

“But what we found on Tuesday is that Republicans weren’t able to close the deal,” he said. “There were voters who were primed for change, who wanted to hold Democrats responsible for the economy. But in many of the key races, voters either didn’t want to punish Democrats for what they don’t like about President Biden or they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican.”

Dobbs galvanized Democrats

In addition, Gonzales said, the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the court held that the U.S. Constitution does not confer a right to abortion, galvanized Democrats to vote. “Dobbs closed the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters,” he said.

Gonzales said one projection in which he is happy about being wrong was the post-election environment. “I was projecting a tumultuous post-election period,” he said. “I thought we were headed for dozens of contested races, violence at polling places. But thus far it has been a relatively smooth election.”

Susan Rupe is managing editor for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @INNsusan.