NY-27: A roller-coaster race nears the finish line

Nov. 04--This was not the congressional race most Republicans wanted.

Through most of the spring and summer, the race bore all the signs of a GOP cakewalk. A popular incumbent with a campaign war chest of well over $1.4 million. A Republican enrollment advantage of over 40,000 voters, making the 27th Congressional District the most Republican in the state. An opponent who struggled to raise campaign funds and gain name recognition.

The race did present some challenges. Mid-terms have historically been hard on the party controlling the White House, and indeed, pollsters are forecasting that Democrats will attract more voters this year, even if they do not win the House. And last October, a pair of House ethics probes concluded it was likely that U.S. Rep. Chris Collins had engaged in insider trading and used his position to benefit Innate Immunotherapeutics, the Australian bio-tech firm in which he had invested millions.

Still, few observers thought Democrat Nate McMurray, the Grand Island supervisor, had much of a shot at taking the seat.

Then came Aug. 8.

That morning, federal prosecutors in Manhattan unsealed an indictment charging Collins, his son Cameron and Stephen Zarsky, the father of his son's fiancée, with 11 felony crimes for an alleged insider trading scheme.

Collins, while attending a June 2017 congressional picnic at the White House, had received an email informing him that Innate's multiple sclerosis drug had failed at a clinical trial. He got the news because, as Innate's largest investor, he sat on the company's board of directors.

The drug was Innate's only product, so the failure was sure to tank the company's stock value. But not for several more days, when the news would be released to the public.

Collins immediately called Cameron, who passed the information on to Stephen Zarsky and illicitly sold off nearly $600,000 worth of his own shares, prosecutors allege.

All told, the alleged insider trading scheme saved Collins' friends and family over $768,000 in losses, according to the indictment. Collins himself lost millions, and is not accused of selling shares based on the tip.

Collins pleaded not guilty and was released on bail.

He has, both himself and through his attorneys, repeatedly professed innocence.

"We will answer the charges filed against Congressman Collins in court and will mount a vigorous defense to clear his good name," attorneys Jonathan Barr and Jonathan New said in a statement Aug. 8.

"We are confident he will be completely vindicated and exonerated," they added.

Forty days later came the next major shift in the race.

Collins, who had pledged to drop out three days after his arrest, announced Sept. 17 he would actively seek reelection, shocking local party leaders who had spent weeks planning for a way to replace Collins under the state's restrictive election law. Republicans like Sen. Rob Ortt and Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw appeared ready to step in for the incumbent who remains free on bail.

"You cannot help but feel like a groom jilted at the altar," Erie County Republican Chairman Nick Langworthy said at the time.

The announcement made the race one of the most-watched in the nation, and left thousands of independents and moderate Republicans shocked.

Norbert Rug of Lockport is one.

"I probably would have voted for him," Rug said. "But the fact he got arrested for insider trading didn't surprise me at all. ... I think it's going to cause a Democratic swing, to have a Republican like that still in the running."

Rug does not think much of Collins' repeated insistence that he is innocent of the charges.

"Just because he says he's innocent doesn't mean he is," said Rug, likening it to former President Bill Clinton lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

Other voters say Collins deserves the presumption of innocence.

"I realized, after watching the (Supreme Court Justice Brett) Kavanaugh hearings, that the Democrats now believe you are guilty until proved innocent," said Barry Griffith of Lockport.

But Jack Coyle of Gasport, an independent, said the case against Collins appears solid.

"The Justice Department would not indict a sitting congressman unless they had an open-and-shut case. And I don't think Congress is any place for a convicted felon," Coyle said.

Other voters doubt Collins' insistence that he would be able to serve if reelected.

Many point out that after the indictment, Collins was kicked off the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

And given that Collins' trial is set for Feb. 3, 2020, it's possible he could be sentenced to jail before finishing his fourth term of office.

Still, many voters are backing Collins because he's a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump, who carried the district by nearly 25 points 2 years ago.

Collins was famously the first sitting House member to endorse Trump. He has gone on television hundreds of times to defend the president. Last year, he voted for the GOP tax cuts and the failed Republican attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare. He vocally supports and has voted for a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico.

Collins has also pushed to repeal Obama-era policies, such as a controversial water regulation plan for Lake Ontario, and frequently sparred with Gov. Andrew Cuomo. One Collins-sponsored bill, the Second Amendment Guarantee Act, would invalidate most of the state's controversial gun control law, the SAFE Act.

But Collins -- who has avoided local media, granted few interviews and refused to debate his opponents -- has made little mention of his record since re-entering the race. His public statements, issued through campaign spokesman Natalie Baldassarre, consist almost entirely of attacks on McMurray, linking him to Cuomo and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

His campaign ads consist almost entirely of attacks against McMurray. Many make misleading accusations, and one that highlighted McMurray's time in South Korea and China was widely denounced as racist.

"The difference between Nate McMurray and Congressman Collins couldn't be any clearer," Baldassarre said in a recent statement. "Voters have a choice between a candidate who supports President Trump or a candidate who's bought and paid for by Nancy Pelosi and her progressive machine."

But McMurray has tried to position himself as a non-partisan moderate who would focus on local interests. He said he would not back Pelosi for speaker, should Democrats retake the House, and called impeachment of Trump -- whom he has rarely mentioned -- the "farthest thing from (his) mind."

"I think this premature talk of impeachment is tearing our country apart," McMurray said at an Oct. 30 debate at St. Joe's Collegiate Institute. Later in the debate, he said that while he does not "like" Trump, he would try and work with him.

McMurray has also tried to stake out a centrist position on guns, calling for expanded background checks and funding for gun violence research, but promising to keep gun owners "at the table."

In one campaign video, McMurray shot skeet. In another he held a rifle.

And almost whenever the issue comes up, McMurray points out that Collins had to surrender his guns -- as well as his passport -- to federal authorities after his arrest.

On other issues, McMurray has taken more traditionally leftist positions. He supports Medicare-for-all, legalized marijuana, abortion rights, unspecified environmental protections and ending the Citizens United decision that removed limits for campaign contributions. He called the GOP tax bill a "raw deal" that mainly benefits the rich, and said he will oppose cuts to Social Security. He said he would support protections for illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, and called the border wall a "waste of money."

McMurray has also frequently invoked everyday local issues. He called for an end to the Trump administration trade wars that have cut into many farmers' bottom line, and mentioned pot-holes repeatedly at the Oct. 30 debate.

"I would be a representative not for the Democratic party, not for the Republican party, but for all of western New York," McMurray said at the Oct. 30 debate. "I would listen to the constituents, and I would be there for them."

Most election forecasters give Collins the edge. Every independent poll has found Collins in the lead -- though sometimes by less than the poll's margin of error -- while only one McMurray-commissioned poll found the Grand Island Democrat out front.

But polling, even at its best, can only deal in probability, never certainty, and supposedly less-probable outcomes will occur in some races. Surely all voters recall the last election when that happened.

___

(c)2018 the Lockport Union-Sun & Journal (Lockport, N.Y.)

Visit the Lockport Union-Sun & Journal (Lockport, N.Y.) at lockportjournal.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.