NY-27: A roller-coaster race nears the finish line
Through most of the spring and summer, the race bore all the signs of a
The race did present some challenges. Mid-terms have historically been hard on the party controlling the
Still, few observers thought Democrat
Then came
That morning, federal prosecutors in
Collins, while attending a
The drug was Innate's only product, so the failure was sure to tank the company's stock value. But not for several more days, when the news would be released to the public.
Collins immediately called Cameron, who passed the information on to
All told, the alleged insider trading scheme saved Collins' friends and family over
Collins pleaded not guilty and was released on bail.
He has, both himself and through his attorneys, repeatedly professed innocence.
"We will answer the charges filed against
"We are confident he will be completely vindicated and exonerated," they added.
Forty days later came the next major shift in the race.
Collins, who had pledged to drop out three days after his arrest, announced
"You cannot help but feel like a groom jilted at the altar,"
The announcement made the race one of the most-watched in the nation, and left thousands of independents and moderate
"I probably would have voted for him," Rug said. "But the fact he got arrested for insider trading didn't surprise me at all. ... I think it's going to cause a Democratic swing, to have a Republican like that still in the running."
Rug does not think much of Collins' repeated insistence that he is innocent of the charges.
"Just because he says he's innocent doesn't mean he is," said Rug, likening it to former President
Other voters say Collins deserves the presumption of innocence.
"I realized, after watching the (
But
"The
Other voters doubt Collins' insistence that he would be able to serve if reelected.
Many point out that after the indictment, Collins was kicked off the
And given that Collins' trial is set for
Still, many voters are backing Collins because he's a staunch supporter of President
Collins was famously the first sitting House member to endorse Trump. He has gone on television hundreds of times to defend the president. Last year, he voted for the
Collins has also pushed to repeal Obama-era policies, such as a controversial water regulation plan for
But Collins -- who has avoided local media, granted few interviews and refused to debate his opponents -- has made little mention of his record since re-entering the race. His public statements, issued through campaign spokesman
His campaign ads consist almost entirely of attacks against McMurray. Many make misleading accusations, and one that highlighted McMurray's time in
"The difference between
But McMurray has tried to position himself as a non-partisan moderate who would focus on local interests. He said he would not back Pelosi for speaker, should
"I think this premature talk of impeachment is tearing our country apart," McMurray said at an
McMurray has also tried to stake out a centrist position on guns, calling for expanded background checks and funding for gun violence research, but promising to keep gun owners "at the table."
In one campaign video, McMurray shot skeet. In another he held a rifle.
And almost whenever the issue comes up, McMurray points out that Collins had to surrender his guns -- as well as his passport -- to federal authorities after his arrest.
On other issues, McMurray has taken more traditionally leftist positions. He supports Medicare-for-all, legalized marijuana, abortion rights, unspecified environmental protections and ending the
McMurray has also frequently invoked everyday local issues. He called for an end to the Trump administration trade wars that have cut into many farmers' bottom line, and mentioned pot-holes repeatedly at the
"I would be a representative not for the Democratic party, not for the Republican party, but for all of western
Most election forecasters give Collins the edge. Every independent poll has found Collins in the lead -- though sometimes by less than the poll's margin of error -- while only one McMurray-commissioned poll found the
But polling, even at its best, can only deal in probability, never certainty, and supposedly less-probable outcomes will occur in some races. Surely all voters recall the last election when that happened.
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