In Sarasota-Manatee, the storm surge threat grows

May 30-- May 30--More than 368,000 residences in Southwest Florida are in danger of hurricane storm surge, with a potential rebuilding cost topping $77 billion.

For the fourth straight year, the Sarasota-Manatee area ranked eighth among major U.S. metro areas for storm surge risk, according to a study released Thursday by real estate database CoreLogic.

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With the 2019 hurricane season starting Saturday, Florida remains the state with the most homes at risk of a storm surge and with the highest reconstruction cost in the U.S.

Some 7.3 million homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts sit in danger from hurricane-driven waves.

"Damage from storm surge and inland flooding has proven to be far more destructive than wind in recent years, so we cannot rely on the hurricane category alone to give us a sense of the potential loss," said Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic. "A Category 5 hurricane in an area with few structures may be far less devastating than a Category 1 hurricane in a densely populated area."

Hurricane Irma ripped through Southwest Florida as it traversed the state in September 2017, the first hurricane to strike the area since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Michael stuck the Panhandle last October.

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, with a 70% probability of nine to 15 named storms, with two to four of those growing into major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

In Sarasota and Manatee counties, 262,745 single-family homes and 3,252 multifamily units are in areas of low to extreme storm surge risk, CoreLogic said. They have an estimated reconstruction value of $54.6 billion. Of those, 24,007 are at "extreme" risk, meaning they would be impacted by even the weakest storm's surge.

In Charlotte County, 101,544 homes and 855 multifamily units are potential storm-surge victims, with an estimated rebuilding cost of $22.8 billion. Among them are 28,297 properties that would be affected by any hurricane.

The rebuild estimate in the three counties for single-family homes has jumped by nearly $6.8 billion in the past year.

Florida has the most exposure in the U.S. to storm-surge flooding with 2.9 million vulnerable residences. They would cost more than $603 billion to rebuild.

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area ranked first for the number of U.S. homes for storm-surge danger. Tampa-St. Petersburg was third, Cape Coral-Fort Myers was sixth.

Louisiana ranked second to Florida, with 847,032 residences at risk.

The price to rebuild the residences along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts would cost nearly $1.8 trillion, CoreLogic said.

"Though wind is generally thought of as the primary contributor of hurricane losses, this is not always the case," the report said. "Ocean water that is pushed inland ahead of the storm can destroy or severely damage structures and has the potential to leave billions of dollars of damage in its wake. The cost residents and insurers face in the aftermath of a storm can be devastating."

Analysts had previously estimated up to $38 billion in flood damage from Irma in Florida and other states, with up to 80 percent of the damaged homes without flood coverage.

The typical homeowners' insurance policy does not cover damage from flooding caused by storm surge or inland flooding. Losses from those perils are covered under the National Flood Insurance Program.

CoreLogic's reconstruction estimates are based on the total destruction of the residential structure.

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