The real cost of volatility-controlled indices in IUL policies

By Nick Pratt

Over the past 25 years, indexed universal life policies have become arguably the most complex life insurance products on the market — both for better and for worse.

One feature of today’s IULs is the volatility-controlled index. These index strategies are referred to by several different names in our industry: VCIs, proprietary indices and engineered indices, to name just a few. Broadly speaking, these indices are created for a specific result (often for certain performance or volatility levels), which differentiates them from a standard market index.

VCIs are custom-built indices designed to provide lower volatility compared with a more traditional index such as the S&P 500. They have become popular because the carrier can provide uncapped returns with appealing participation rates while still maintaining a 0% floor, due to the lower cost of options purchased to hedge these indices compared with the S&P 500.

In practice, however, VCIs are based on backcasted data and have a short real-
world track record. Although index allocation is only one part of choosing a product, this analysis will help you understand and assess IUL products that are becoming increasingly difficult to compare.

Comparing VCIs with the S&P 500

Of the nearly three dozen VCIs available on IULs currently on the market, we analyzed the performance of the dozen we see most frequently. We compared the underlying index performance since each VCI was first launched to the S&P 500 during the same time.

Below is the chart comparing the performance data of all 12 VCIs to the S&P 500.

All 12 VCIs generated less than 40% of the S&P 500 return, and eight of them produced less than 10% of the index return! VCIs clearly have not been able to live up to their hypothetical backcasts.

To begin, we will highlight the Credit Suisse Balanced Trend 5% Index (Balanced Trend Index) due to its age relative to other popular VCIs and its performance’s proximity to the average of the group. The Credit Suisse Balanced Trend 5% Index went live on Nov. 20, 2017. Due to their reliance on low volatility, VCI-linked index strategies are often uncapped and feature high participation rates or other crediting bonuses to offset their lower expected returns. For that reason, one would reasonably expect to see worse raw index performance than the S&P 500 but close enough that these bonuses make up the difference.

With the current bonuses on the actively placed IUL featuring the Balanced Trend Index, it only needs to average approximately 40% of the S&P 500’s growth to produce a similar return to investors. This is uncapped growth, 0% floor, 210% participation rate and 0.4% fixed bonus, according to data obtained from National Life Group life insurance illustration software.

In backcasted data, the balanced trend index produced 6% annual returns compared with 7.6% for the S&P 500, or 78% of the S&P 500’s return from Sept. 30, 2002, to Nov. 20, 2017 — well over the 40% needed to justify using the VCI. However, since the Balanced Trend Index went live, its growth was only 9.1% of the S&P 500’s, as shown above.

In other words, while backcasted data suggested that an IUL based on the Balanced Trend Index would outperform one backed by the S&P 500, real-world data has suggested the opposite. This result of poor performance compared with the S&P 500 is consistent across all 12 VCIs analyzed.

IUL backcasting without VCIs: Are VCIs really less risky?

Another misconception about VCI-backed IULs is that they are less risky than an S&P 500-linked IUL.

For example, the Balanced Trend Index generated a 0.8% return in its 2008 backcasted performance when the S&P 500 lost 38.5%. But its performance in 2022, when the S&P 500 lost 19.4%, demonstrates why backcasted performance cannot be relied on — the Balanced Trend Index lost 11.1% that year.

While the S&P 500 without a floor and ceiling is volatile, the collared returns received on an IUL policy dramatically reduce that volatility. This can be shown using Schechter’s backtesting calculator, which applies actual S&P 500 performance to IUL crediting methodologies.

The chart below shows rolling average returns in five-year increments between five and 30 years, based on the 103-year history of the S&P 500. This assumes a cap rate of 10.0%, a floor rate of 0.0% and a participation rate of 100%.

While the S&P 500 is quite volatile, an IUL backed by the S&P 500 is much less risky.

What product is right for your client?

Some clients are too risk-averse for an IUL linked to the S&P 500. Given the poor performance of VCIs so far, we would still recommend avoiding these products.

For clients with a low risk profile, we believe whole life or current assumption universal life, which generate consistent returns, are a better fit than an IUL linked to a VCI.

Nick Pratt is senior case design and product analyst at Schechter. Contact him at [email protected].