Will Gov. Cooper’s ‘born alive’ veto help or hurt him in 2020?
Activists protested outside the
In 2020,
Lt. Gov.
Political experts told The
General elections are often most influenced by candidates at the top of the ballot. Over the next 16 months, voters could be galvanized by investigations into President
"Voters have fairly short attention spans. Cooper's veto is receiving attention now, but it's likely that other salient issues will come along between now and the election," said
"Unless an opponent or outside group chooses to highlight this issue and run a lot of advertisements criticizing him for it, it likely won't be salient when Cooper is up for re-election in 2020," Usry said.
"The partisan bases want to make it about hysterical issues that don't make a difference to the average voter," Crone said. "With your unaffiliated suburban voter, they'll respond to issues about education, more educational opportunities, the stability of the economy and their sense of whether the state is moving in the right direction."
McCrory is one of only two one-term governors in recent years. The other was Democratic Gov.
But
"The reason HB2 had an impact is because it actually occurred in the election year, it was the biggest story in the state for weeks, and it had a huge negative impact on business," Jensen said.
"The abortion bill happened 17 months away from the election, never really rose to being that big of a story, and won't have any secondary impacts like the passage of HB2 did," he added. "I don't think much of anyone will still be talking about it in 2 weeks much less 17 months."
But, if either party chooses to focus on abortion, it'll be making a political gamble.
How it could help
Conservatives are more hopeful these days that the new right-leaning
Several states in the South have recently enacted strict abortion laws that are expected to face legal challenges.
By contrast,
Some NC Republicans have argued that the "born alive" bill isn't about abortion. Despite the fact that experts say laws already protect infants born alive during an abortion,
If bill supporters can make voters believe
"If you're thinking about the black and Latino votes, they're associated with the Democratic Party but they're not necessarily pro-choice," said
And, though
"Women don't vote as a monolith," she said.
How it could help
"I think it's an abortion bill," he said.
Some of the strict new laws elsewhere -- for example, in
State-specific polls from 2014 show a similar breakdown. Pew found that a majority of NC adults approve of legal abortion in all or most cases, while Elon found that more North Carolinians favored easier abortion access than harder abortion access.
The NC bill "actually draws connections to other states in which
More to come?
It's also possible that the "born alive" bill isn't the last piece of abortion-related legislation NC lawmakers handle before the 2020 election.
In March, a federal court struck down
While NC's ban includes exceptions for certain emergencies, critics said it doesn't comply with past court rulings. And District Judge
"
The judge gave lawmakers the option to rewrite the law or appeal the court's ruling. The case remains unresolved.
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