Who is running to replace retiring Congressman Charlie Dent?

Sept. 22--Voters in Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District will be filling an open seat next year for the first time since 2004, and the current field of four contenders is likely only a sampling of the choices primary voters will be sorting through next spring.

Two Democrats, Allentown pastor Greg Edwards and Bill Leiner of Coplay, and two Republicans, state Reps. Justin Simmons and Ryan Mackenzie, both of Lehigh County, so far have announced their intentions to run to succeed retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent.

PHOTO GALLERY: With U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent set to retire, a number of candidates have entered the race for Congress in Pennsylvania's 15th District, with many more considering running.

The 15th Congressional District includes all of Lehigh and parts of Northampton, Berks, Dauphin and Lebanon counties. It supported President Donald Trump by seven percentage points in the 2016 eleciton.

Congressman Charlie Dent talked to The Morning Call about his decision to not seek re-election in 2018.

Congressman Charlie Dent talked to The Morning Call about his decision to not seek re-election in 2018.

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Two more Democrats familiar in the Lehigh Valley have confirmed they're considering a bid: Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli and Alan Jennings, the longtime executive director of the Community Action Committee of the Lehigh Valley.

Another, former Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan, is said to have had discussions about a run. He did not return telephone messages left by The Morning Call.

On the Republican side, Lehigh County commissioner and former Olympic cyclist Marty Nothstein is mulling a bid. Dauphin County Commissioner Mike Pries said he's "strongly considering" one too. So far Pries is the only potential candidate from the western end of the district, which stretches from Northampton County nearly to Harrisburg.

And those are just the known potential contenders in a district that will attract national attention and fundraising. District of Colombia-based staffers with EMILY's List, which recruits and supports female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights, say the organization is talking with several possible candidates in the 15th District.

The apparent interest level reflects the dynamics of having an open seat, particularly one in a district that narrowly leans toward one party and isn't a sure thing for candidates on either side of the aisle, said Chris Borick, a political scientist and pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

With next year's midterm election expected to put Republicans on the defensive, as typically occurs for the party holding the White House in a non-presidential cycle, Democrats will have high expectations.

"These are the types of elections where you can get a seat that may flip," Borick said. "For Republicans, there's lots of interest because it's a seat where they still have an excellent chance to hold it."

In declaring his potential bid on Facebook, Morganelli pitched himself as the Democrat best prepared to win back the seat, touting strong local support for his past statewide election bids and strong name identification. Morganelli has run several times for state attorney general without success.

He told The Morning Call he exchanged phone messages this week with staffers at the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and will decide soon.

"Serving in Congress would be an honor and according to the analysis, although it doesn't guarantee victory, I start with a huge advantage -- this is not a liberal district and it fits my moderate profile well," Morganelli said in his Facebook post.

What the district's primary voters will be looking for in a candidate remains unclear. While the 15th District has been viewed traditionally as a moderate area, those coming out in a primary election may lean more to extremes than the middle of each party, Borick said.

As the first open race in more than a decade, the results are likely to show where each party's voters stand ideologically and whether there have been shifts in their leanings, said Don Cunningham, a former Lehigh County executive and now president and CEO of the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation.

"Traditionally, Democrats here were more moderate and Republicans were too," said Cunningham, a Democrat who says he's not among those mulling a run at the 15th District seat. "Personally, I thought that was a strength. This will test if that's still the case."

While Morganelli presents himself as a centrist -- a position that could be helpful in the general election, but may be less enticing to primary voters -- another possible candidate, Jennings, would present a contrast on the Democratic side.

Jennings has spent his career at an organization helping fight poverty and discrimination in the Lehigh Valley, a potentially powerful credential in a Democratic primary, Borick said.

Jennings confirmed his interest in the race during a phone interview with The Morning Call, saying that running for Congress is something he's been thinking of "only since I was about 14."

"I've spent my life trying to fix things in our world that don't work and what doesn't work right now is Washington," Jennings said. "Both sides share some blame, and I'd love to be part of an effort to stir up some reform of the way Congress doesn't work."

On the Republican side, there may be a similar contrast for voters, reflecting the debates within both parties nationally. Borick said that of the two declared candidates so far, Simmons has embraced more of the populist elements of the GOP resonating since President Donald Trump's candidacy, and while Mackenzie also is conservative, he's taken more of a traditional style and approach.

Those mulling or said to be mulling a run so far largely reside in the Lehigh Valley end of the district. That reflects the district's voter distribution, with nearly three-fourths of registered voters in the 15th residing in Lehigh and Northampton counties, according to state voter registration data.

Having many of the candidates in one area could create an opportunity for someone like Pries, who lives outside the Valley, if there are multiple candidates splitting the vote in their Lehigh Valley base. But candidates from Dauphin, Lebanon and Berks counties also would need to fight for votes in the Valley due to the share of voters in the area.

Those considering the race don't need to make up their mind immediately, but the pressure will be on to start raising money fast. There are other congressional targets for Democrats in southeastern Pennsylvania, meaning that even if the race is more enticing to national donors, candidates will be competing for any outside financial help.

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