USD/BRL Analysis: Highs Challenged Apex Value Amidst Trading Concerns – 30 July 2024

The USD/BRL has come off the higher levels of its near-term range, but remains within the upper realms of its long-term charts, sparking concerns among traders.

-- The USD/BRL closed Monday’s trading near the 5.6158 level, which is certainly within the higher part of its mid and long-term price range.
-- Traders of the Brazilian Real who have been betting against the trend in hopes of a sudden bearish trajectory emerging have likely found difficult results.
-- The USD/BRL is not correlating to the USD centric weakness which has been seen in other major currency pairs.
The inability of the USD/BRL to trade lower is a sign financial institutions are nervous about the Brazilian government’s fiscal policy. The USD/BRL touched the 5.6900 vicinity last Thursday which came within sight of apex values on the 2nd of July. Any thoughts that financial institutions have become less nervous about domestic issues in Brazil have evaporated for the time being. Speculators know the U.S Federal Reserve will make its Federal Funds policy statement tomorrow; the question is how much of an impact it will have on the USD/BRL.

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USD/BRL Known Outlooks versus a Lack of Clarity

Yes, the USD/BRL has come off of highs seen late last week, but the trend of the currency pair remains challenging, and when it opens today traders should be braced for potential gaps. The problem for short-term speculators and large institutional players in the USD/BRL is that while they believe the U.S Federal Reserve is going to become more dovish, inflation concerns in Brazil continue to keep monetary policy in the nation under the scrutiny of the Brazilian Central Bank which wants to maintain a higher interest rate. There is a lack of clarity from Brazil.

Even though many major currencies have gained against the USD the past few weeks, the USD/BRL has remained highly valued. Yes, the currency pair does have fluctuations which produce reversals for speculators to take advantage of, but the trend in the USD/BRL has remained bullish within technical perspectives. Tomorrow’s potentially dovish sounding U.S Fed should cause headwinds against the USD/BRL, but to say for certain that this is going to happen is speculative.

USD/BRL and Quick Hitting Trades

While speculators may believe the USD/BRL is too high and that it must trade lower, this type of stubborn behavior and betting posture can prove to be dangerous. The USD/BRL has been tracking higher consistently this year and this means financial institutions are more concerned about the Brazilian government’s economic policies compared to USD centric notions.

-- Small traders might want to sit on the sideline before tomorrow’s Fed pronouncement.
-- If the U.S Fed suggests a couple of rate decreases will happen this should help the USD/BRL selloff a bit, but the question is how much considering concerns coming from within Brazil.
Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: ;5.6225

Current Support: ; 5.5960

High Target: 5.6060

Low Target: ; 5.5700

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