Study Findings from Environmental Protection Agency Broaden Understanding of Risk Management (Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New…

Study Findings from Environmental Protection Agency Broaden Understanding of Risk Management (Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- A new study on Risk Management is now available. According to news reporting from Washington, District of Columbia, by VerticalNews journalists, research stated, "Cryptosporidium human dose-response data from seven species/isolates are used to investigate six models of varying complexity that estimate infection probability as a function of dose. Previous models attempt to explicitly account for virulence differences among C. parvum isolates, using three or six species/isolates."

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from Environmental Protection Agency, "Four (two new) models assume species/isolate differences are insignificant and three of these (all but exponential) allow for variable human susceptibility. These three human-focused models (fractional Poisson, exponential with immunity and beta-Poisson) are relatively simple yet fit the data significantly better than the more complex isolate-focused models. Among these three, the one-parameter fractional Poisson model is the simplest but assumes that all Cryptosporidium oocysts used in the studies were capable of initiating infection. The exponential with immunity model does not require such an assumption and includes the fractional Poisson as a special case. The fractional Poisson model is an upper bound of the exponential with immunity model and applies when all oocysts are capable of initiating infection. The beta Poisson model does not allow an immune human subpopulation; thus infection probability approaches 100% as dose becomes huge. All three of these models predict significantly (>10x) greater risk at the low doses that consumers might receive if exposed through drinking water or other environmental exposure (e.g., 72% vs. 4% infection probability for a one oocyst dose) than previously predicted."

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: "This new insight into Cryptosporidium risk suggests additional inactivation and removal via treatment may be needed to meet any specified risk target, such as a suggested 10(-4) annual risk of Cryptosporidium infection."

For more information on this research see: Cryptosporidium Infection Risk: Results of New Dose-Response Modeling. Risk Analysis, 2016;36(10):1969-1982. Risk Analysis can be contacted at: Wiley-Blackwell, 111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, NJ, USA. (Wiley-Blackwell - www.wiley.com/; Risk Analysis - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting M.J. Messner, Environmental Protection Agency, Off Water, Washington, DC 20460, United States.

Keywords for this news article include: Washington, District of Columbia, United States, North and Central America, Risk Management, Environmental Protection Agency.

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