Studies from People’s Public Security University of China Have Provided New Data on Risk Management (Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America): Insurance – Risk Management

2024 MAR 08 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at NewsRx Policy and Law Daily -- Research findings on risk management are discussed in a new report. According to news reporting originating from Beijing, People’s Republic of China, by NewsRx correspondents, research stated, “Recent years have seen increasing academic interest in exploring the correlation between temperature and crime.”

Funders for this research include National Natural Science Foundation of China.

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from People’s Public Security University of China: “However, it is uncertain whether similar long-term trends or seasonality (rather than causal effect) of temperature and crime is the major reason for the observed correlation between them. To explore whether there is still a correlation between temperature and crime when long-term trends and seasonal cycles are filtered out, we use the Kalman filter to decompose the time series of temperature and crimes, and then the fast Fourier transform is used to calculate the exact circle of their seasonality separately. Based on that, the box-plot method and linear regression are used to explore the correlation between temperature residuals and crime residuals. The results show that more than half of the crime types have similar seasonal cycles (approximately 1 year) to that of temperature. Moreover, the daily residual analyses show that temperature residuals have a positive correlation with assault and robbery residuals in all cities, whose average slopes are more than 0.1. The other four types of crimes vary greatly from case to case.”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “The temperature residuals show a weak correlation with the residuals of some crime types.”

For more information on this research see: Exploring the correlation between temperature and crime: A case-crossover study of eight cities in America. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, 2024,5(1):13-36. The publisher for Journal of Safety Science and Resilience is KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2023.11.001.

Our news editors report that more information may be obtained by contacting Jinming Hu, School of Information Technology and Cyber Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, People’s Republic of China. Additional authors for this research include Xiaofeng Hu, Xin’ge Han, Yan Lin, Huanggang Wu, Bing Shen.

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