State officials say flu season could prove to be one of the worst in years

Jan. 10--As a California Department of Public Health official said the flu season could become among the state's worst in a decade if it maintains its early pace, Ventura County officials reported two more flu deaths Tuesday.

The new deaths linked to the flu bring the county's total to 11, all reported by public health officials since Christmas. All but two of the deaths involved people 65 and older.

A year ago, three county residents died over the entire flu season.

In a news conference Tuesday, state public health officials said it's difficult to know whether the current spike in cases across California primarily reflects the unusually early start of flu season or is a sign of sickness yet to come.

"We might end up having one of the worst seasons in quite some time," said Dr. Gil Chavez, state epidemiologist for the California Department of Public Health.

Read more: Torrent of flu brings more deaths in Ventura County

State records through the end of December show 27 deaths across California but only track fatalities in people younger than 65. By comparison, the Ventura County tally includes all ages.

In a typical year, about 100 people younger than 65 die in California from flu, said Dr. James Watt of the California Department of Public Health. In the particularly severe 2013-14 flu season, more than 400 people died from the flu across the state.

In Ventura County, three people died in the 2013-14 flu season, said Dr. Robert Levin, the county's public health officer. In the 2009-10 flu season, nine county residents died.

"I think it's a big number," Levin said of the 11 deaths in the first four weeks of the current season. "I think this is the worst flu season that we've seen in a long time."

Chavez said there have been reports of spot shortages of Tamiflu, an antiviral medication used to treat flu symptoms. He said the shortages have less to do with the amount of the medication produced and more with the increased demand triggered by a surging flu season.

In Ventura County, some independent pharmacies said they've been able to find the medication. A CVS spokeswoman said Tuesday that individual stores in the chain may be temporarily out of stock but said the company is working with suppliers to make sure supplies are replenished.

At St. John's hospitals in Camarillo and Oxnard, the surge in emergency room visits involving flu-like symptoms began two days before Christmas and continued Tuesday, said spokeswoman Megan Maloney.

Early assessments have cast doubt on the effectiveness of this year's vaccine in blocking the dominant H3N2 influenza A strain. Watt said more definitive assessments are expected in February.

"Getting the flu shot is still the best way to protect yourself and others from the flu," he said, asserting that the shot can reduce the severity of symptoms even when it doesn't block the flu.

Of the 27 deaths reported statewide, about 70 percent involved people who were unvaccinated, while the balance were immunized against the flu, Chavez said.

Somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of the state residents get an annual flu vaccination, said Watt, asserting that the number has risen in recent years.

The H3N2 strain is typically more virulent, often causing more deaths, state officials said. Other questions remain unanswered, including queries about why the season surged to an early start.

"I wish that we knew," Chavez said.

What to do if you get sick

* If your symptoms are severe or you're in a high-risk group, contact your doctor.

* Stay home for at least 24 hours after your fever is gone.

* Stay away from others.

* If you go to see a doctor, wear a face mask.

* Wash your hands often.

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

High-risk groups

At higher risk of flu complications are:

* Children younger than 5 years of age and especially younger than 2.

* Adults 65 and older.

* Pregnant women.

* Residents of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

* American Indians and Alaskan natives.

* People with certain chronic conditions or with weakened immune systems.

* People younger than 19 years of age who are receiving aspirin therapy.

* People with extreme obesity.

Source: CDC

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