Safer Skies, But Claims and Risks Grow, According to Allianz and Embry-Riddle Aviation Risk Report
- Despite record numbers of passengers, 2017 and 2018 are among the aviation industryās three safest years for fatal plane crashes
- Analysis of 50,000 aviation insurance claims reveals collision/crash incidents are major cause of loss, followed by faulty workmanship and machinery breakdown
- Nearly 15,000 reported wildlife collisions with aircraft in the
U.S. with average claim of$360,000 - More incidents of turbulence due to climate change ā particularly on flights between
Europe andNorth America
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Global aviation risks by the numbers (Photo: Business Wire)
The report, which analyzes more than 50,000 aviation insurance industry claims worth more than
A broad range of safety improvements
Three of the past four years have been the safest ever for air travel. In 2017, for the first time in at least 60 years of aviation, there were no fatalities on a passenger jet flight, making it the safest year ever. Even 2018, which saw a total of 15 fatal airliner accidents with 556 victims, ranks as the third safest year ever, according to statistics from the Aviation Safety Network2, with 2015 ranked second. The lifetime chances of a person dying in a commercial aviation accident are extremely unlikely compared with other forms of transport such as by car or bicycle, as well as more unexpected scenarios such as accidental gun discharge or dog attack.
āThe continuous improvement in aviation safety can be attributed to several factors, including design improvements, new technologies, more effective pilot training as well as significant improvements in manufacturing processes, aircraft operations and regulation,ā explains
Aerodynamic and airframe improvements, fly-by-wire aircraft and more effective safety inspections have had a dramatic impact on accident rates over the past decades. At the same time, engine manufacturers have almost eliminated the chance of engine failure. Radio and avionics are extremely precise today and improved air traffic control technology and better collision systems have also had a positive impact.
āPilots now have much more live information at their fingertips while current navigation systems have the capability to determine an aircraftās position to the thousandths of a mile,ā says
Future challenges
The report also highlights a range of emerging risk scenarios, including:
- The projected demand for about 800,000 new pilots over the next 20 years ā double the current workforce ā brings challenges in recruitment and training, particularly in flight schools.
- Pilotsā overreliance on aircraft automation systems have resulted in accidents, highlighting the need for pilots to be better prepared to take manual corrective actions in event of technical malfunction.
- Incidences of turbulence are predicted to increase due to climate change with the North Atlantic flight passageway anticipated to see the greatest increase. Extreme turbulence can cause structural damage to aircraft, which can cost millions of dollars.
- The growing number of drones in the skies and cyber risks such as hacker attacks, systems outages and data breaches are also expected to have a significant impact on the aviation loss landscape.
- Accidents-on-the-ground remain problematic and could exacerbate. In many cases, airport infrastructure has not kept pace with the rapid growth in passenger and aircraft numbers. Crowded servicing areas and aprons are resulting in more collisions and ramp accidents. It is anticipated that the vast majority of the worldās busiest airports will likely see capacity issues within 10 years.
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Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
1 Between
2 Aviation Safety Network releases 2018 airliner accident statistics,
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