Our permanent presidential campaign now looks to 2020

The 2020 presidential election is already underway. For most people, that is a fact they would rather avoid. Yet it is just the reality of the permanent campaign we now experience in American politics.

What will that race look like? One nearly certain candidate is President Donald Trump. No incumbent president has passed on a second term since Rutherford B. Hayes in 1880. Even though Trump is the oldest man elected president, which will make him the oldest up for re-election, it is highly unlikely he will determine that his work is done in one term. Admittedly, Trump has broken many of the rules of politics, but I believe he will run again.

However, his public approval rating needs to soar over the next three and a half years if he chooses to do so. The latest Gallup Tracking Poll shows Trump is more unpopular now - 100 days into his term - than he was on Inauguration Day. While he had 45 percent disapproval on Jan. 20 (a record-high disapproval rating), he now has 55 percent disapproval. A recent Fox News poll had only 36 percent of voters saying they would vote for Trump if the election were held today. Fifty-five percent said they would vote for someone else. (By contrast, the numbers were nearly reversed for Barack Obama three months into his term.)

Nevertheless, the president should not be counted out for re-election. Voters will be choosing between two major- party candidates, and the Democratic candidate would need to be more popular than Trump. Who could that person be?

One prospect is Hillary Clinton. Part of her must be itching for a rematch where she can correct her 2016 mistakes and finally best Trump. Clinton may run, but it is highly unlikely Democrats will trust her with the nomination again.

Another is former Vice President Joe Biden. There may be much wishful thinking among Democrats right now. If Biden had run in 2016, might he have beaten Bernie Sanders more handily and Donald Trump as well? Could he have reached out to working-class voters turned off by Hillary Clinton? Biden is an aggressive campaigner and may be a contender in 2020. However, he will be 77, four years older than Donald Trump. That would be a remarkable shift in the electorate's mood. Another, larger problem for Biden is that he is a symbol of the past. If the Democratic Party wants a fresh, new face, it must look beyond Biden.

That problem also applies to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Sanders led a movement in 2016 that nearly toppled the Clinton machine. And his supporters are taking over the Democratic Party at the grass-roots level. But movement leaders rarely last past a single election, as issues change and new personalities emerge. Plus, Sanders is even older than Biden.

Elizabeth Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, is another possibility. And Warren already is beating the hustings to win the 2020 Democratic nomination. But Warren's appeal, like Sanders', is limited to a wing of the Democratic Party that usually leads the party to defeat. George McGovern, Michael Dukakis and John Kerry are examples. Warren may benefit from the Sanders surge if Sanders himself does not run. But pragmatic Democrats will wonder if Warren possesses the ability to broaden the base.

Are there others? There are fresh, newer faces. Democrats need to encourage those candidates who could increase support for the Democratic Party, particularly in states where Democratic presidential candidates typically are no longer competitive. These include Rocky Mountain, Midwestern and Southern states such as Montana, Arizona, Kansas, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee.

One person Democrats should get to run, but probably won't, is Sen. Jon Tester of Montana. Tester, a farmer, has won twice in a state that has only voted twice for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1948. Yet another is Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. Casey appeals to working-class voters like Biden does. A social-justice and anti-abortion activist, Casey could win back Catholics and evangelicals.

Candidates - both Trump and Democrats - already are angling for 2020. The campaign, it seems, never ends.

Richard Davis is a professor of political science at Brigham Young University. He is the author of "The Liberal Soul: Applying the Gospel of Jesus Christ in Politics." His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of BYU.

Credit: By Richard Davis For the Deseret News