One More Chance to Work Up a Sweat

Manic September From shorts to sweatshirts, September is one of those months where everything under the sun can happen weatherwise. Minnesota's wild September weather can range from tornadoes to even snow! Last week featured cool, wet weather across the state where temps were nearly -5F to -15F below average and several inches of precipitation fell across a widspread area. The week ahead is going to be on the other side of the spectrum as temps warm into the upper 70s and 80s with more sunshine. It'll be a much nicer week to get out and about and enjoy some of the fall colors now starting to show up park near you! ____________________________________________________________________________ Twin Cities: Sunday Dayplanner Here's a look at the dayplanner for Sunday in the Twin Cities metro. After a very cool and wet week last week, Sunday is going to feel great! High temps could approach 80F, which would be the first time since August 20th. ________________________________________________________________________ Temps on Sunday Alright, this is more like it! Sunny and 80F in September? You bet!. Keep in mind that our average high at the MSP Airport in mid September is in the low 70s, so we'll be nearly +5F to +10F above average! Enjoy!! _____________________________________________________________________ Statewide Temperature Outlook For Sunday Not sure I could draw up a better forecast for mid September. Mother Nature has given us a well deserved break from the cool, cloudy and wet weather that we had much of last week. Sunny skies and temps in the 70s and low 80s will be just what the doctor ordered. ____________________________________________________________________________ Thunder Chance Returns Tuesday Sunday and Monday will be very nice days across the region. Temps will be mild and above average for mid September with some sunshine. Our next best chance of rain looks to arrive Tuesday through Wednesday with a few rumbles of thunder possible as well. _______________________________________________________________________ Rainfall Potential Through Wednesday According to NOAA's WPC, rainfall amounts through Wednesday could be fairly impressive in a few spots. Rainfall amounts will certainly depend on where thunderstorms develop, but some spots could see close to 1" of rain or more through midweek. Stay tuned! _________________________________________________________________________ Somewhat Soggy Next 7 Days?

According to NOAA's WPC, parts of the Upper Midwest still could be somewhat soggy as we head through the week ahead. There appears to be 2 different storm systems that will impact the Upper Midwest over the next 7 days, which could both produce decent rainfall amounts. The first system will impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday and the next system will move in late week and weekend ahead. Areas of showers and thunderstorms could potentially bring parts of the region another 1" to 2"+ of rain by next weekend. Stay tuned...

__________________________________________________________________________ Reds, Oranges and Yellows. Oh My!

I don't know about you, but I LOVE fall. Sure, I'm sad to see summer fade, but the beauty of living where we do, we get to enjoy 4 season! Crisp morning air, mild afternoon sunshine and nature's painbrush. Fall colors have been popping up around the region and it's about to get really good over the coming weeks! Don't blink either. It sneaks up fast and then it's gone.

_______________________________________________________________________ MN DNR Fall Color Update According to the MN DNR fall color map, much of the state is starting to see some type of fall folliage. Sure, it's not much, but changes are happening. Keep in mind that the typical peak in the Twin Cities isn't until late September/mid October, but folks near the international border typically start seeing peak color toward the end of September. Keep an eye on the Fall Colors from the MN DNR HERE: ___________________________________________________________________________ Typical Peak Color Across the State According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities have to wait until late September/mid October. It's hard to believe, but fall colors will be here before you know it! _______________________________________________________________________ First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th, which is less than 1 month from now! The earliest was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

______________________________________________________________________ Soggy September So Far...

It certainly has been a wet start to September. In fact, many locations around the state and around the region are running several inches above average. Green Bay, WI has had more than 7" of rain so far this month, which is by far the wettest start to any September on record! If Green Bay didn't see anymore rain this month, it would be the 3rd wettest September on record. Rochester, MN is off to its 3rd wettest start to any September on record. ____________________________________________________________________________ 2nd Wettest Start to Any Year on Record at the MSP Airport It certainly has been a wet go of things across the Upper Midwest this year. In fact, the Twin Cities has had 34.22" of precipitation this year, which is the 2nd wettest start to any year on record (through September 13th). The top spot through that date belongs to 1892, when 35.08" of precipitation fell through that date. ___________________________________________________________________________ Fall Ragweed Allergies

AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers are having some issues now that the the fall allergy season is in full swing. Take a look at the forecast over the next few days and the good news is that pollen levels will take a bit of a hit thanks to the recent rains we've had!

_______________________________________________________________________ "What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HeathLine.com HERE:

_________________________________________________________________________ "Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

________________________________________________________________________ "Phenology: September 10th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate. Each week in our Phenology Talkback segment we hear from listeners who have been paying attention to nature. This week we are thrilled to report we received our first phenology note from a classroom! The kids from Prairie Creek Community School in Northfield sent in their first class report! These young phenologists noted the decrease in monarchs and dragonflies, the increase in colors on maple trees, horses' hair getting thicker for winter and much more!" See more from KAXE.org HERE: __________________________________________________________________________ US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 10th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, it's been too wet this year and many farmers are having issues this year.

_________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including the Twin Cities, which is more than 10" above average so far this year and at its 2nd wettest start on record. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with more than 43" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 3rd wettest year ever in recorded history. Note that Rochester is less than 1" away from being the wettest year on record and we still have more than 3 months left of 2019... Good grief!

_____________________________________________________________________________ Tropical Storm Humberto Impacts Bahamas And Stays East Of The Southeastern US Key Messages:

Tropical Storm Humberto was named late last night and is now passing near the Bahamas. This storm is producing rain and wind near the Bahamas today, including areas that were impacted by Hurricane Dorian. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for parts of the the northern Bahamas. The latest track update has shifted the track slightly eastward, further away from Florida and the Southeastern US. This means lower rainfall totals and less of an impact to the US. There are four other disturbances in the tropics right now that are worth watching.

Latest Imagery. Most of the convection is occurring in the eastern part of the storm. Although it is following a similar path to Dorian, there are some significant differences with this storm. It is considerably weaker. Right now is has max sustained winds of 40 mph. It is also moving more quickly. The path is further east compared to Dorian so the rainfall totals will be much lower along the coasts of the southeastern US.

Track Forecast. The track forecast from the NHC indicates that this storm will likely maintain its status as a Tropical Storm until early Monday. At that point it is possible that it may go through some intensification and become a Category 1 Hurricane as it moves over warmer waters of the Gulf Stream in the coming days. During that period of strengthening, though, Humberto is still expected to remain away from land areas.

Projected Rainfall Through Monday Evening. Rainfall associated with this passing system totals along the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina will generally stay in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Forecast Wind Gusts. While this system will stay well offshore, windy conditions are expected today and tomorrow along the east coast of Florida. It is also possible hazardous surf conditions will develop at the beaches through the weekend.

Other Areas to Watch. While probability of development in the short-term remains low, there 4 other disturbances that are worth watching in the tropics right now. We are now in the midst of the most active part of hurricane season.

Gretchen Mishek, Meteorologist; Praedictix _________________________________________________________________

Atlantic Outlook Here's the 5 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin, which shows Tropical Storm Humberto near the northern Bahamas, but there are also several other waves that are being monitored. 3 different waves located in the Central Atlantic and are drifting west, while the other is drifting northwest through the Gulf of Mexico. ________________________________________________________________________ Points of Tropical Origin: September 1st - 10th The first few of weeks of September are typically some of the most active times for tropical activity, which ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks. ____________________________________________________________________ Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season." ____________________________________________________________________________ Still Active in the Eastern Pacific According to NOAA's NHC, the Eastern Pacific is still acting up with Kiko heading west and 2 other waves south of Mexico that have a moderate chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. Hurricane season is well underway in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. _____________________________________________________________________________ National Precipitation Since January 1st Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis is nearly 15" above average and off to its 2nd wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there. __________________________________________________________________________ US Drought Monitor According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. We've also seen an uptick in the drought across the Southern Plains where severe and even extreme drought conditions have been popping up. _________________________________________________________________________ 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, it finally looks like folks in the Upper Midwest might start to dry out a bit! The extended forecast from September 21st - 27th suggests drier than average conditions possible there, while folks in southern Alaska and the Pacific Northwest might be a little wetter than average. ____________________________________________________________________________ 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the last full week of the month suggests warmer than average temperatures possible across much of the nation and into southern Alaska.

________________________________________________________________________

Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of September, which shows a pretty warm week ahead with highs warming into the 80s right through the weekend! The GFS is suggesting a bit of a cool down later in the month, but keep in mind that the average high at the MSP Airport at the end of September is in the mid 60s, so highs in the 70s will be above average.

______________________________________________________________________ Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September.

_____________________________________________________________________________ One More Chance to Work Up a Sweat By Paul Dougals

I'm relieved. Alabama is still hurricane-free. My take on "Sharpie-Gate"? Public safety trumps politics. Weather forecasts change over time - we can't reference (or extrapolate) a hurricane track projection that's days old. Public officials should absolutely speak up and raise awareness, but only with the latest data.

There's zero margin for error with storms like Dorian. Research confirms that when the public receives conflicting hurricane or tornado forecasts, they're more likely to do nothing; paralyzed by confusion. I have 365 days a year to compete on 7-Day outlook accuracy, but when weather is life-threatening, meteorologists and public officials must speak with one voice, deferring to experts at NOAA.

We've earned a July flashback and it's here. 80F will feelgood today (no blobs expected on Doppler) with mid to upper 80s bringing back sweaty memories by midweek. In fact a mild bias lingers into next week.

A far cry from this date in 1916 when St. Paul received its earliest snowfall. Uff da. _____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: Calm. Low: 63.

MONDAY: Sticky sunshine, very nice. Winds: S 7-12. High: 85.

TUESDAY: Hazy sunshine, summer flashback. Winds:SE 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High: 87.

WEDNESDAY: Still muggy with a stray t-storm. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 70. High: 84.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine, still pleasant. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63 High: 80.

FRIDAY: Some sun. Isolated t-storm. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 79.

SATURDAY: More numerous showers and t-storms. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 63 High: 78. ______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History September 15th

1939: Minneapolis experiences a daily record high of 98.

1916: St. Paul receives their earliest recorded snowfall. __________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis September 15th

Average High: 72F (Record: 98F set in 1939) Average Low: 53F (Record: 36F set in 2011)

Record Rainfall: 2.59" set in 1992 Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1916 _________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis September 15th

Sunrise: 6:51am Sunset: 7:24pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 54 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 hours & 4 minutes __________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for September 15th at Midnight 2.1 Days Since Full "Harvest" Moon

"11:33PM Friday - Traditionally, this designation goes to the full moon that occurs closest to the autumnal (fall) equinox. The Harvest Moon usually comes in September, but (on average) once or twice a decade it will fall in early October. At the peak of the harvest, farmers can work into the night by the light of this moon. Usually the moon rises an average of 50 minutes later each night, but for the few nights around the Harvest Moon, the moon seems to rise at nearly the same time each night: just 25 to 30 minutes later each night across the U.S., and only 10 to 20 minutes later for much of Canada and Europe. Corn, pumpkins, squash, beans and wild rice -- important Indian staples -- are now ready for gathering. Since the moon arrives at apogee about 15 hours earlier, the farthest distance from Earth in its orbit, this will also be the smallest full moon of 2019. In terms of apparent size, it will appear 12.2 percent smaller than the full moon of Feb.19."

See more from Space.com HERE:

___________________________________ What's in the Night Sky?

"On September 12, 13 and 14, 2019, look for a full-looking moon to light up the nighttime sky from dusk until dawn. Depending on where you live worldwide (your time zone), this month’s full moon will fall on Friday, September 13, or Saturday, September 14. For the Northern Hemisphere, this September full moon counts as the closest full moon to the September autumn equinox, so it’s the Northern Hemisphere’s full Harvest Moon. For many, it’ll be a Friday the 13th Harvest Moon … great party theme! The last time that the Northern Hemisphere’s full Harvest Moon fell on a Friday the 13th (for at least a portion of the world) was in the year 1935, and the next time won’t be until the year 2171. In the Southern Hemisphere, the September equinox ushers in the spring season. The Southern Hemisphere’s autumn equinox will come six months from now, on March 20, 2020. And the full moon on March 9, 2020, will be the Southern Hemisphere’s Harvest Moon – the full moon closest to their autumn equinox. What is a Harvest Moon? It’s more than just a name. More about the Harvest Moon phenomeon below. This full moon is also the smallest full moon of 2019. More about the mini-moon or micro-moon below. Want more about full moons and Friday the 13ths? Look below for that, too."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Average Tornadoes By State in September According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in September is quite a bit across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 2 tornadoes, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). ______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,461 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley. _______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through September 13th suggests that there have been a total of 1,495 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1209. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,782 tornadoes were reported. ________________________________________________________________________ Sunday Weather Outlook High Temps on Sunday will be very warm across much of the nation. In fact, temps could be running as much as +5F to nearly +20F above average, while folks in the Pacific Northwest will be running nearly -F to -15F below average. ___________________________________________________________________________ Record Heat in the South on Sunday Here's a look at potential record highs for Sunday, September 15th. Numbers circled are potential record highs for Sunday, which are located across parts of central and southeastern Texas. It still feels like summer out there! _________________________________________________________________ National Weather Outlook Here's the weather outlook through the rest of the weekend and the early part of next week. Note Humberto sliding north along the East Coast, while spotty showers and storms will be possible across parts of the nation. Some of the steadiest rain looks to fall across parts of the Northwest. ______________________________________________________________________________ Heavy Ranifall Potential Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests pockets of heavy rain potential over the next several days. Interestingly, it seems like all or none across parts of the nation. If you're going to get rain, you could see several inches, while other areas could be completely dry. _________________________________________________________________________ "Tokyo snow: Japan's Olympic organizers trial slush machines to beat summer heat" "Olympic officials used a snow machine to spray a crowd of volunteers with shaved ice and slush on Friday as they tried out ways to keep spectators cool at next year’s summer games in Japan. The fake snow arced high into the air before showering down at the trial in Tokyo - one of a series of measures being considered to combat humidity and temperatures that regularly top 30 Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) in July and August. Some in the crowd grimaced as the snow came pelting down, but most seemed to enjoy it. “The organizing committee want to try all we can to mitigate the heat, and this is one of the ideas that we came up with,” said Taka Okamura, a senior director at the Tokyo 2020 Organising Committee. “It isn’t going to lower the air temperature, but hopefully the ice will make the people it hits feel cooler.” Staff fed blocks of ice into the back of the snow machine mounted on a truck at a canoeing event in the capital. It lobbed 300kg of slushy snow at the 150 volunteers over five minutes." See more from Reuters HERE: _____________________________________________________________________________+ "The real value of Greenland is in the ice, rather than the minerals" "Whoever's flag flies above Greenland, as the ice sheet on world's largest island moves closer to a catastrophic point of no return, we might instead pause to ask whether it really matters who owns it. When Donald Trump raised the possibility of purchasing Greenland from Denmark, his critics in the US had to pause and regain their balance. But how preposterous was this idea? Initially, debates in the US focused around the possible logistics of a deal. And what soon became clear is that Greenland, the world’s largest island, is a semi-autonomous nation that is not for sale and never will be. What’s more, Denmark, whose prime minister aptly called Trump’s gambit “absurd,” couldn’t sell Greenland even if it so desired. Some good may still come from this awkward diplomatic moment. At least in America, we’ve awakened to the idea that this arctic island is far more important than most of us previously believed. Not only does Greenland have extraordinary reserves of rare-earth metals that are crucial to the manufacture of electronics equipment. Its location, near to an increasingly belligerent Russia, makes it an important geostrategic partner." See more from Science Focus HERE: __________________________________________________________________________ "The Hunt For Earth 0.2? Why The Search For Alien Life May Need To Think Small To Go Large" "Does the “habitable zone” need a mini-makeover? Yesterday, astronomers at UCL announced that they had detected water vapor in the atmosphere of a “super-Earth” called K2-18b, which has habitable temperatures. However, it’s a “super-Earth” about six times bigger than Earth. Astronomers know that planets with atmospheres–including Earth-sized planets and super-Earths–can support liquid water on their surfaces, but what about small planets? A new paper by Harvard University researchers suggests that the current search area for life in the Universe is way too small. Should astronomers be looking at the small planets that have so far been overlooked? In essence, they’re trying to extend the habitable zone, which refers to the distance from its star a planet needs to be for liquid water to exist on its surface. Too close to its star, and the planet will be too hot and the water boil away. Too far, and any water will freeze. It’s for these reasons that this range of orbits around a star is also called the “Goldilocks zone.” However, the retention of water also relies on the atmospheric pressure on any given planet. So are we missing something about the habitable zone? Should we be looking for low-mass waterworlds?" See more from Forbes HERE: ____________________________________________________________________________ "Could Climate Change Benefit Companies Like Amazon?" "Companies that deliver groceries, clothing and other things people want already benefit from the fact Americans like convenience and don’t always feel like leaving the house, but will climate change might make us even more likely to stay in and order the things we want online? According to a new report from the Federal Reserve, extreme weather caused by climate change could have a significant impact on in-person retail sales in the not-too-distant future, but it’s unclear if online retailers will benefit. When the weather is bad, author Brigitte Roth Tran found, people are less likely to go shopping. This is both harmful to the stores seeing a decline in sales and to the employees who might see fewer shifts available due to a lack of foot traffic. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean people will simply choose to order everything they need online. “I find no evidence of sales being shifted to the online space when weather is bad for shopping in stores,” she writes. “Instead, the most favorable weather for shopping in stores also increases online sales, while unfavorable weather for stores does not appear to affect online sales on net.” See more from Inverse HERE: _____________________________________________________________________________ "Climate change is coming for your travel plans. Here’s how to cope." "Hurricane Sandy hit New York City five days into our family vacation. My husband and I were stranded in an Airbnb on the Upper West Side -- along with our 4-year-old daughter and my 73-year-old mother -- as winds felled trees and the storm surge flooded streets and subway tunnels. My mom, an anxious traveler, panicked while my husband and I ran around town after the storm getting food and water. Because airlines were grounded, we couldn’t get back to our home in Northern California for four days. Fortunately, we were able to stay in the apartment we’d rented until we could score a return flight. But the delay put tremendous strain on my mom, who fretted about being stranded and was so distraught over the delays and the news reports about flooding and destruction that she almost wound up in the emergency room." See more from Washington Post HERE: ______________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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