New model suggests 46K CT properties at greater risk of flooding

Jun. 30--More than 46,000 Connecticut properties are greater risk of flooding than current federal estimates suggest, according to a new study, with Bridgeport having the largest number of exposed properties statewide at more than 5,800 in all, and Old Greenwich and Cos Cob having the highest proportion of any neighborhood at more than 30 percent of homes combined.

The nonprofit First Street Foundation analyzed properties nationally, calculating new risks of flooding using revised models for rising sea levels and hurricane activitiy developed in conjunction with researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Columbia University and Rutgers University among other think tanks.

First Street estimates that 10.3 percent of U.S. properties are at risk of a major flood once a century, with 2.6 percent at risk of flooding once every five years. The report flags Florida and Louisiana as coming under intensified risk in the coming years, due to ongoing coastal development in Florida and levees protecting Louisiana neighborhoods that are not designed to withstand floodwaters at current projected levels.

The most recent flood zone maps published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency place about 60,400 Connecticut properties within areas at risk of a catastrophic flooding event, with First Street indicating the model used by its own researchers puts the number above 107,000 properties.

"I think the issues raised about the inadequacy of the FEMA maps is accurate," stated Jim O'Donnell, a University of Connecticut professor and executive director of the Connecticut Institute for Resilience & Climate Adaptation research center, in an email response to a query about Connecticut's risks. "The main point, that we should be more careful in assessing flood risk, is good."

Over the past two decades, just over 45,000 Connecticut property owners have filed claims for flood damage through the National Flood Insurance Program or the Individual Assistance Program, about a third of them in the wake of 2012's Hurricane Sandy. And more than 8,150 homeowners sought remuneration on the heels of Irene the year before.

Homeowners in Milford appear to have the longest memories from the two events, with the city leading Connecticut for National Flood Insurance Program policies in force as of February, approaching 2,800 insurance policies. Fairfield and Stamford had the next highest numbers with more than 2,100 policies each, with Norwalk at close to 2,000 and Stratford at about 1,700.

Last year, Gov. Ned Lamont reinvigorated a Governor's Council on Climate Change created five years ago by his predecessor Dannel P. Malloy. The council's working groups having continued their planning via Zoom web conferences during the coronavirus pandemic, including one that is analyzing varying finance mechanisms that can support greater community resiliency after flooding, particularly flood insurance for communities where fewer property owners are purchasing it.

"More and more people are under-insured and uninsured -- it's billions of dollars that are at risk every year," said George Bradner, director of the property and casualty division of the Connecticut Insurance Department, speaking in mid-June on a web conference for the finance working group.

Old Greenwich and neighboring Cos Cob are at the greatest risk of flooding calculated as a percentage of all properties in the Greenwich districts, combining for about 30 percent of all properties or more than 1,350 properties in all.

Other communities with flood risks ranging between 20 percent and 30 percent of all properties include Branford center, East Haven, Westport, Darien, Norwalk and Bridgeport. Hartford has the greatest exposure of municipalities located inland from Long Island Sound, at 19 percent of properties within the city's borders.

Alex.Soule@scni.com; 203-842-2545; @casoulman

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