Louisiana and parts of Texas and Mississippi in Tropical Storm Cristobal’s cone, but it’s early yet

Tropical Storm Cristobal could potentially reach the U.S. Gulf Coast by the end of the weekend, according to the latest public advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm’s cone of probability, which shows the range of potential paths it could take, now includes the entire Louisiana coast, as well as parts of neighboring Texas and Mississippi, according to the 4 a.m. Wednesday public advisory.

If this path were to hold, it would see Cristobal ultimately heading north across the Gulf of Mexico to Louisiana. That said, it was still early, and forecasters warn that long-range tropical weather forecasts are always subject to change.

The Florida Panhandle could also see some impacts.

Affected areas could be at risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind, according to NHC.

“Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle,” the hurricane center said Wednesday.

“While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.”

For now, the storm is forecast to stay close to the warm Gulf waters, which allow it to maintain its strength. But some models have Cristobal moving as far island as Guatemala. If that happens Cristobal would weaken considerably, with a “more expansive wind field," according to the 4 a.m. public advisory.

As of 4 a.m. Wednesday, Tropical Storm Cristobal was located about 25 miles off the eastern coast of Mexico over the Bay of Campeche, moving southeast at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds have strengthened to 60 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles from the center of the storm.

By Wednesday afternoon, the storm is expected to turn to the east and head inland over southeastern Mexico where it could remain for up to 48 hours.

Cristobal is expected to produce extreme rainfall through the week’s end.

Heavy rain with the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides is expected this week in southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras. Parts of Guatemala and El Salvador have already seen deadly flooding, the hurricane center said Tuesday.

Rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches, is expected over parts of southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

"They have it moving to the north eventually, but not until much, much later into early next week,” National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Frye said of the system’s projected path. “The steering currents are just so light down there right now, and that’s why it’s kind of meandering, which is bad news for Mexico because they’re getting a lot of rain from it.”

“Conditions are fairly conducive over the Bay of Campeche,” Frye said. “It should mingle down there for a little bit causing a lot of flooding and a lot of bad weather there for portions of Mexico.”

Cristobal is the third named storm of 2020 in the Atlantic. Both Arthur and Bertha formed ahead of June 1, the official start of hurricane season. It’s also the earliest C-name storm in recorded history, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It broke the record previously held by Tropical Storm Colin, which formed on June 5, four days after the start of the 2016 hurricane season.

The storm formed from the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda, which formed briefly in the Pacific, off the coast of Central America and dissipated after making landfall in Guatemala. It is rare for a Pacific tropical system to regenerate as an Atlantic storm.

Floridians can stock up on hurricane supplies without paying sales tax now through June 4.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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