Hurricane Dorian could grow to Category 4 by Sunday as storm approaches Florida

Aug. 29--Hurricane Dorian could grow to a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph by Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest update as the storm trudges toward Florida after mostly sparing Puerto Rico.

As of 11 a.m., Dorian remained a Category 1 storm with winds continuing to swirl at 85 mph. It was 220 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving northwest at 13 mph. The hurricane center's next complete advisory will be at 5 p.m.

"Dorian is moving into an environment with low vertical wind shear, moving over warm water. This will allow for steady intensification, and the storm will likely strengthen to a major Category 3 storm on Friday," Fox 35 meteorologist Kristin Giannas said Thursday morning. "The latest track has peak intensity on Monday, with sustained winds at 130 mph right before landfall, south of Cape Canaveral.

"While it's too soon to say exactly where the storm will make landfall, the chance of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds along Florida's east coast is increasing. Residents and visitors should have their hurricane plan in place."

President Trump said Florida is "going to be totally ready" for Hurricane Dorian. In an appearance on Brian Kilmeade's Fox News radio show, he said he spoke with Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday night and that, "He's all set."

The overnight forecast models showed the storm slowing somewhat, with the center now hitting land early morning Monday. By early Tuesday morning it could still be a Category 2 hurricane as it moves over the Orlando area.

"This would be the strongest hurricane to hit Central Florida in over 30 years," Fox 35 meteorologist Glenn Richards said Wednesday evening. "Hurricane force sustained winds would be carried across the entire width of the state if the current forecast holds."

On Thursday morning, President Trump tweeted, "Hurricane Dorian looks like it will be hitting Florida late Sunday night. Be prepared and please follow State and Federal instructions, it will be a very big Hurricane, perhaps one of the biggest!"

Right now the storm is fairly tight with hurricane-force winds only extending out 15 miles, and tropical storm force winds extending out 90 miles, but the warm waters of the Atlantic as Dorian approaches the northwest Bahamas should allow the storm to grow in both intensity and size, according to discussion on the NHC's website.

-- Education

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"Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days," the NHC said in its 11 a.m. discussion.

Several of the forecast path models target Central Florida for landfall, but forecasters emphasize that anyone in the cone, which includes all of Florida's east coast, should be prepared.

"There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur," the NHC said Thursday morning.

"It's too soon to say exactly where the storm will make landfall," Fox 35 meteorologist Kristin Giannas said early Wednesday. "A lot depends on the strength of a ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic, which could steer the storm further south or further north. As of 5 a.m., the GFS model is showing a weaker ridge and is bringing Dorian further north, while the EURO model is showing a stronger ridge, pushing the storm toward South Florida."

The cone of uncertainty shows it could also be anywhere from coastal Georgia to the Florida Keys by early Monday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday evening declared a state of emergency.

"Today, I am declaring a state of emergency to ensure Florida is fully prepared for Hurricane Dorian," DeSantis said. "It's important for Floridians on the East Coast to monitor this storm closely. Every Florida resident should have seven days of supplies, including food, water and medicine, and should have a plan in case of disaster. I will continue to monitor Hurricane Dorian closely with emergency management officials. The state stands ready to support all counties along the coast as they prepare."

-- Florida State Seminoles

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Central Floridians have started preparing for the hurricane's arrival.

Some grocery stores were already seeing their stocks of bottled water and other supplies dwindle; a Publix spokesman said the chain was experiencing "impact buying" from customers. Generators, tarps, batteries and battery-powered weather radios were being snapped up at Home Depot stores.

Orlando resident Ed Smith loaded up his vehicle with four cases of bottled water and other groceries Wednesday afternoon. "I'm not going to go crazy," said Smith, 62.

The University of Central Florida, where classes for the fall semester started on Monday, is watching the path of the storm and urged students living on campus to move to safe off-campus locations if the storm stays on the same track.

-- Education

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At Jay Blanchard Park in East Orange County, county workers were handing out shovels and bags Wednesday for residents to make their own sandbags. Almost 7,000 bags had been filled by late afternoon.

Altamonte Springs is providing sand and bags for city residents starting Thursday at Eastmonte Park and Westmonte Recreation Center from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Residents must bring their own shovel and each household is limited to 15 bags.

And on the coast, in anticipation of the storm, Kennedy Space Center Visitor's Complex will be closed Sunday and has stopped bus tours and special interest tours for Saturday.

-- Hurricane Dorian News

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Teams at KSC and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station are working to secure multimillion-dollar equipment before Dorian hits. KSC teams are preparing to potentially move the mobile launcher, which is the steel ground structure that attaches to a rocket for preparations and launch.

It's currently at launch pad 39B and will be used to launch NASA's upcoming rocket, the Space Launch System, and astronaut capsule Orion for upcoming missions to the moon.

Port Canaveral, which is close to the projected path, is also on alert. Cruise lines were making adjustments based on Dorian's projected path. Carnival Cruise Line shifted Carnival Breeze out of Port Canaveral to bypass San Juan on Wednesday and adjusted schedules for Carnival Sunrise out of New York and Carnival Magic out of Fort Lauderdale. Royal Caribbean closed down CocoCay, its private island in the Bahamas that features a water slide that rises more than 135 feet above the most flat island.

Parts of Florida could expect 4 to 8 inches of rain, and up to 12 inches in isolated areas later this week and into early next week.

"Given the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72 hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall," the NHC said.

Orlando International Airport on Wednesday said eight flights to and from Puerto Rico have been canceled so far.

The Orlando Utilities Commission invited customers in Orange and Osceola counties to sign up for outage alerts, which include estimated restoration times, at my.OUC.com or by texting REG to 69682 (myOUC).

-- Hurricane Dorian Preparedness

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"Prep is key and should be completed ASAP, Saturday at the latest," Fox's Jayme King said.

PETA on Thursday reminded Floridians with pets never to leave them tied up or confined to crates, pens, or hutches as they could be trapped and unable to flee rising waters.

"Animals could die if abandoned during any evacuations that may occur," PETA media coordinator Brooke Rossi said.

During Hurricane Irma, more than 50 tethered cats and dogs were rescued by animal control officers in Palm Beach County, PETA said.

Dorian left mercifully little damage in its wake in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, where it blew through as a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday.

Puerto Rico seemed to be spared any heavy wind and rain, a huge relief on an island where blue tarps still cover some 30,000 homes nearly two years after Hurricane Maria. The island's 3.2 million inhabitants also depend on an unstable power grid that remains prone to outages since it was destroyed by Maria.

Several hundred customers were without power across Puerto Rico, said Ángel Figueroa, president of a utility workers union. Police said an 80-year-old man in the town of Bayamón died after he fell trying to climb to his roof to clear it of debris ahead of the storm.

Dorian caused an island-wide blackout in St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands and scattered outages in St. Croix, government spokesman Richard Motta said.

No serious damage was reported in the British Virgin Islands, where Gov. Augustus Jaspert said crews were already clearing roads and inspecting infrastructure by late Wednesday afternoon.

The storm hit the Virgin Islands on Wednesday and a weather station south of St. Thomas recorded a gust of more than 110 mph, the NHC said.

Staff writers Lisa Cianci, Stephen Dowell, Austin Fuller, Chabeli Herrera, Leslie Postal, Cristóbal Reyes and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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