How many big storms are headed this way?

Researchers at North Carolina State University predict six to eight hurricanes over the warm-weather months in the state, with the possibility of two or three major hurricanes.

Between 11 and 15 named storms are predicted, according to a recently published report.

"Researchers are expecting near normal, even below-normal, activity than what we've seen the past several years," Barrett Smith, a senior service hydrologist at Raleigh's National Weather Service, told The News & Observer.

"When we had Hurricanes Matthew and Florence, we were in a three to four-year period of above normal hurricane activity."

April 30 through May 6 is Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Why worry about hurricanes in the foothills of western North Carolina?

In a recent story about flooding in McDowell County, Emergency Services Director William Kehler recalled local damage caused by Hurricanes Frances and Ivan in September 2004, when significant and life-threatening flash flooding occurred across McDowell.

Another historic year was 2018, when McDowell County was affected by three storms including Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael.

The most recent storm that left a trail of damage occurred in 2021 when Tropical Storm Fred caused significant damage to western North Carolina counties, including McDowell. Six people in WNC died during the storm and its aftermath.

Here's what to know about the upcoming hurricane season:

When is NC's 2023 hurricane season?

June 1 to Nov. 30. The season occasionally begins in May, though there's no conversation of an earlier start this year, Smith said.

When is hurricane season at its peak?

Sept. 10. The season's peak begins mid-September and continues through the end of the season (Nov. 30).

This doesn't mean the strongest hurricanes will fall between mid-September and November, Smith said. Rather, you are likely to see any hurricane in this time period, regardless of the strength.

So when will NC's major hurricanes hit in 2023?

That's currently unclear. "There's no prediction right now as to when those stronger hurricanes will be," Smith said.

"If you look at it in terms of when most hurricanes have been, by pure numbers, the stronger hurricanes are in that [September to November] time frame, but they can be any time during the season."

In mid-May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will put out an official report detailing predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, he said.

Why is NC expecting a below-normal hurricane season?

Within the past few weeks, the NOAA Climate Office put out an El Niño watch, Smith said.

El Niño (which means "little boy" in Spanish) is a climate pattern that can suppress the development of hurricanes.

How to prepare for NC's hurricane season

Emergency kits, flood insurance and local media are important needs during hurricane season.

Learn what to do before, during and after a storm hits by visiting news observer. com/news/weather-news.