Caribbean RoundUp

Bahamas

The Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBN) says the country's economy should remain strong, but warns that a prolonged Middle East conflict could negatively impact economic stability by raising costs and decreasing demand.

"The economy is exposed through several well-defined external channels. These include increased energy price pressures and higher transportation and freight costs, which would increase the cost of imported goods and services, including motor vehicle fuel," the CBB said in its "Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) February 2026."

Strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran have contributed to global oil prices rising above $100. The CBB notes that fuel hedging is expected to help contain electricity costs; however, in the near term, tourism growth in 2026 may be dampened by decreased U.S. consumer confidence, which could soften demand.

"Conversely, the industry could encounter upside benefits as geographic proximity to the US cushions the relative cost of travel to The Bahamas, vis-à-vis more distant destinations. Otherwise, the financing conditions for foreign investments and public sector foreign currency debt operations could become more challenging if the major central banks are prompted to raise interest rates to calm global inflation concerns," the CBB said.

The CBB expects steady economic growth in 2026 as conditions stabilize, driven largely by strong real sector performance. Employment is also likely to improve, with most new jobs coming from tourism and construction.

"Likewise, the fiscal outlook is expected to feature further narrowing in the government's net financing gap, from revenue growth associated with tourism and receipts from the domestic minimum corporate tax."

The CBB says the government will continue to use both domestic and external borrowing, with more emphasis on domestic sources. It also expects banking liquidity to stay high, though increased lending to the private sector may cause a slight decline.

Dominica

The Government of Dominica says the Middle East conflict could increase fuel and food prices, disrupt supply chains, and threaten jobs and overall economic stability, and will take steps to reduce these potential impacts.

"Let me be clear, Dominica is not in danger of war, but we are exposed to the economic aftershocks of this conflict that has already caused the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets," Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit told a news conference.

He added that the most immediate risk facing Dominica is a sharp increase in global oil prices.

"We import all of our fuel and high oil prices, and of course, it will affect electricity costs, transportation, and the price of goods and services across our economy. We face rising costs of imported food and essential supplies, as global shipping routes and supply chains experience disruption," he explained.

Skerrit explained that global travel and investment could slow, potentially affecting tourism levels and financial inflows into the local economy.

"Your government has not waited for the situation to worsen. We are actively and decisively working to protect the people of Dominica. Over the coming days and weeks, we will implement a series of targeted measures designed to cushion the impact on households and businesses."

Roosevelt Skerrit said the government will introduce temporary tax cuts on essential goods and expand support for vulnerable households to ease rising living costs. It will also work with Dominica Electricity Services to manage electricity prices as fuel costs rise.

He added that the country's geothermal energy project in Laudat is progressing well and should help reduce energy costs at a critical time.

Guyana

Guyana plans to launch a national payment platform within six months, expanding access to digital wallets to allow mobile payments and reduce cash use.

"In the next six months, I have advised the governor of the Central Bank that...a national payment platform must be fully operational, and we must have access to the digital wallets at a national level and at a national scale," President of Guyana Irfaan Ali said at the opening ceremony of a new branch of Demerara Bank Ltd.

President Ali said this plan aligns with a broader initiative to update Guyana's financial system and grow cashless services.

He added that the next phase will build nationwide infrastructure, enabling businesses to accept contactless payments so customers can pay using their phones.

"That is where we are going, and that is where the country is heading," Ali said.

Demerara Bank plans to launch digital wallets for its customers within the next four to six weeks.

Irfaan Ali said expanding access to banking is key to Guyana's development, noting that Demerara Bank has made significant progress in this area.

He said the opening of the new branch "represents a continued expansion of traditional banking services, but it also reminds us that the future lies in greater inclusion and digital transformation".

Haiti

Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) has approved 282 political parties and coalitions to participate in the upcoming elections, following a ten-day registration period that saw 320 organizations apply.

Cleared participants include major parties such as Fanmi Lavalas of former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Organization du Peuple en Lutte (OPL), Pitit Dessalines, Les Engagés pour le Développement (EDE) led by former prime minister Claude Joseph, and Ayiti An Aksyon (AAA) of former senator Youri Latortue.

Notably absent are the Parti Haïtien Tèt Kale (PHTK) of former president Michel Martelly and the Résistance Démocratique (RED) platform associated with former officials linked to the late president Jovenel Moïse.

"The Provisional Electoral Council reaffirms its commitment to conducting an inclusive and impartial electoral process, with full independence and transparency," the council said in a statement.

The next phase of Haiti's elections includes voter registration from April 1 to June 29, candidate registration from April 13 to May 15, and campaigning from May to late August.

Key issues, such as election costs and financing, remain unresolved. Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé met with electoral officials and international partners, including the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), and the Organization of American States (OAS), to discuss funding.

Electoral Council president Jacques Desrosiers summarized that sufficient funding and enhanced security are needed to conduct Haiti's first credible elections in more than ten years.

"The elections will be held," Prime Minister Fils-Aimé said in a statement after the meeting with stakeholders. "Their success is a historic and collective responsibility. Since Feb. 7, 2026, Haiti has entered a new phase of transition, structured around a clear roadmap: restoring security, rebuilding the economy, and organizing general elections."

However, ongoing violence makes holding elections in the country a major challenge.

Jamaica

Jamaica's trade deficit widened between January and November 2025, as higher import spending — driven by rising costs — continued to outpace declining export earnings, putting pressure on the country's economic balance.

According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, total imports reached approximately US$6.8 billion, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

The growth in imports was largely driven by higher spending on raw materials and intermediate goods, which rose 9.3%, and a 5.4% increase in consumer goods.

Meanwhile, export earnings fell 11% to around US$1.5 billion, down from US$1.7 billion in 2024, mainly due to a 14.6% drop in the value of crude materials.

Jamaica's top five trading partners for imports during the period were the United States, China, Brazil, Japan, and Trinidad and Tobago, accounting for US$4.2 billion in imports, up 4.7% from 2024.

On the export side, main markets included the United States, the Russian Federation, Iceland, Canada, and the Netherlands. These data point to rising pressures on Jamaica's trade balance as import costs increase while export revenues decline.

Compiled by Devika Ragoonanan