Floridians Not Worried About Hurricanes This Year

Aug. 01--The worst fears of Florida's emergency managers were confirmed this week -- the majority of Sunshine State residents don't believe a hurricane will hit this year and don't feel they're particularly vulnerable if one does come ashore.

A Mason-Dixon poll of 800 Floridians statewide found that 60 percent think that it is "not too likely" or "not likely at all" that a hurricane will make landfall in Florida during the 2015 storm season.

There is also a lack of concern about safety with 56 percent of survey respondents saying they do not feel highly vulnerable to hurricane related damage.

One in three Florida residents said they would not heed mandatory evacuation orders if the pending storm was a Category 1.

"It is relatively clear that the long period of time since the last Florida hurricane has made residents put their guard down and that many younger adults are simply not knowledgeable and experienced when it comes to hurricanes," wrote Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Managing Director Brad Coker in his analysis of the survey results.

It was nearly a decade ago that Hurricane Wilma ripped across South Florida, whacking Palm Beach County with sustained Category 1 winds of up to 95 mph and gusts topping 110. Since then, the county has not experienced a single hurricane watch or warning.

The 10 years of quiet is the longest hurricane drought the state has ever experienced.

And in that time, Palm Beach County's population, has increased by 160,000, while Florida's population has gone up 3 million.

"From a statistical standpoint, we are due for a hurricane," said Florida International University business professor Shahid Hamid, who does insurance-based economic research for the International Hurricane Research Center. "I'm just praying it won't happen."

While this storm season, which runs through November, is forecast to be slower than the historic norm, hurricane experts are quick to point out that the devastating Category 5 Hurricane Andrew came in a year that was considered below average.

Also, the strongest part of the season -- August through October -- is just beginning. The National Hurricane Center began tracking the first tropical system to form off the coast of Africa this week, but gives it just a 10 percent chance of developing over the next five days.

Palm Beach County Emergency Manager Bill Johnson is so concerned about hurricane apathy, his reminders to be prepared for a storm border on preaching.

"Have a plan, build a hurricane kit, be informed and get involved," he said in an interview Tuesday. "Going out the day before to get the last can of Vienna sausage off the grocery store shelf is the wrong time to do it."

The Mason-Dixon poll combined Florida residents for a statewide result, but also separated respondents by age, race, gender and region where they live.

In general, younger adults between the ages of 18 and 34 were less concerned about a storm hitting Florida, felt less vulnerable to its impact and were less likely to follow mandatory evacuation orders, even in the case of a Category 3 storm.

About 21 percent of young adults said they would not evacuate if ordered to do so during a Cat 3 storm, while 11 percent said they weren't sure if they would evacuate.

In contrast, 95 percent of people between the ages of 50 and 64 said they would heed evacuation orders when facing a Cat 3, which packs winds between 111 mph and 129 mph.

"You can't outrun a storm," Johnson said. "But you evacuate to a safe place."

___

(c)2015 The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.)

Visit The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.) at www.palmbeachpost.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.