ANALYSIS: 6 things we’ve learned from the Stapleton-Polis debates

Gazette (Colorado Springs, CO)

Oct. 21--There's only one debate left of the eight October meetings between Republican gubernatorial candidate Walker Stapleton and Democrat Jared Polis.

They meet Tuesday night in a televised debate sponsored by The Denver Post and KMGH-Denver7 at the University of Denver.

We've had our eyes on the issues and theatrics, the spin and the realities, as well as the polls, walk-backs and flip-flops.

Here are our hot takes:

1. Who's killing Medicaid?

Both candidates say the other has it in for the public health care program that serves a quarter of the state's residents.

Stapleton maintains Colorado's Obamacare exchange isn't sustainable, and he only plans to make it better, not kick people off, when the state pays a larger share of the Medicaid costs in the coming years. He said his opponent will spread the program so thin that it amounts to cruelty.

Polis promises universal health care, but in the 9News debate in Fort Collins last Wednesday night he tacked on a caveat: The state can only grow coverage as anticipated savings take hold, and that could take some time.

Polis says there's plenty of "low-hanging fruit" that could yield big savings, though, like bundling payments, establishing high-risk pools and requiring drug cost transparency.

2. Heating and cooling

When it comes to energy, both candidates talk a lot but say very little.

Stapleton is content to let the fossil fuel industry live a rich, natural life while renewables mature as a replacement. Conservation Colorado is spending big bucks to say such a laissez-faire approach only feeds climate change.

Polis talks a lot about renewable energy -- in fact, he kicked off his campaign last year talking about his commitment to moving the state to 100 percent renewable energy by 2040 -- but in debates, he's stressed that's a goal that won't be achieved by mandates.

Polis says cutting regulations while encouraging private investment and innovation will get the state there, but Stapleton scoffs that it's the state's taxpayers, utility customers and those associated with the oil and gas industry who will foot the bill.

3. Magic dollars

To buy into the campaign promises of either candidate, voters have to follow a trail of money and suppositions that begin to resemble a Rube Goldberg device.

In the last two debates in Colorado Springs and Fort Collins, Polis has been more forthcoming about his plans to pay for universal health care, including possible multistate partnerships. Funding universal kindergarten and preschool depends on selling "social impact bonds," paid back by savings on lower special education and grade repetition. Westminster does it, but the more Polis describes it, the less feasible it sounds.

Stapleton's health care plan depends on public partnerships and anticipated federal waivers to let Colorado wield more control over Medicaid and allow more flexible health plans.

Transportation funding hinges on voters statewide approving a tax on sports betting, which the Legislature hasn't yet legalized -- and will only provide a fraction of the required funds. There are a lot of places for money to come up short or fall through completely on both those plans.

4. Flips, flops and context

Since the primary, Polis doesn't sound as fiery about renewable energy as he appeared during the primary, and Stapleton has softened his tone on immigration and sanctuary cities.

Once sounding the alarm like key endorser Tom Tancredo, Stapleton now says the state won't do the bidding of federal immigration authorities and specifies he only considers a jurisdiction a "sanctuary" if it's keeping undocumented felons from the feds.

Stapleton has also said he would repeal the gun laws passed by Democrats in 2013. He's shaded this assertion in the debates, though he made clear in Pueblo he still doesn't support the laws and would sign bills repealing them.

Polis has portrayed himself as a bipartisan coalition builder -- "the convener-in- chief" -- but the nonpartisan GovTrack.US rates him the most liberal member of Colorado's congressional delegation, based on his votes.

He also sits on the bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus, which counts an equal number of Republicans and Democrats and regularly puts forth moderate proposals that promptly languish.

Back home, Polis opposes Proposition 112, which would establish a 2,500-foot setback for oil and gas operations, but in 2014 he bankrolled ballot question to require a 2,000-foot setback before agreeing to scuttle it.

5. Sharp jabs

The debates have left no doubt these guys don't like each other. Neither candidate has held his animosity toward his opponent in check, sometimes outright calling the other a liar. An angry Stapleton has accused Polis of assaulting a woman, referring to a 1999 incident when Polis pushed a former employee Polis suspected of stealing documents that belonged to his company. Police and prosecutors decided Polis was the victim, but Stapleton disagrees.

In the debate in Pueblo, Stapleton asked Polis if he was going to encourage his 4- and 7-year-old children to smoke pot to help pay for schools -- drawing jeers and grumbles from an audience that appeared otherwise stunned into silence -- and he's called Polis "the all-star captain of debt."

Polis has maintained a more even temper in the debates, but his disdain for Stapleton is apparent every time he admonishes his opponent for "attacking proposals that aren't mine."

"Sure, Jared, not you," Stapleton grumbled back in Grand Junction. While dismissive, Polis' occasional flashes of smugness easily overwhelm his demeanor.

6. Reading the polls

Stapleton has been on the offensive in the debates since a poll in early October showed him 7 points down, and subsequent polls have only reinforced the race's dynamics. More than once, Polis has said Stapleton's arguments amount to "subject, verb, Jared Polis," pointing out that the Republican spends more time on the attack than he does describing his platform.

On the other hand, Polis has played it safe, running the familiar campaign when a front-runner tries to make it across the finish line without stumbling.

Speaking of President Donald Trump, Stapleton loved him during the primary but now has grown distant. "President Trump's personality has nothing to do with who will be Colorado's next governor," Stapleton said in Fort Collins.

Meanwhile, Polis has embraced and distanced himself from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who describes himself as a "Democratic Socialist." Polis maintains he's a pragmatic capitalist who doesn't believe in big government, but he shares plenty of big ideas about health care and education with Sanders.

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