Tariffs alter Q2 economic outlook downward, Morningstar says

Tariffs have radically altered Morningstar’s second-quarter U.S. economic outlook as the organization’s chief U.S. economist said President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have pushed projected gross domestic product down, pushed projected inflation rates up and increased the risk of a recession to 40%.

“These tariffs will set in motion a cascade of supply and demand shocks,” Preston Caldwell said in a Morningstar webinar Tuesday.

Morningstar is projecting 2025 GDP growth at 1.2%, a drop from the 1.9% growth it projected in March. In addition, Morningstar projects inflation rates to hit 3% in 2025, an increase from the 2.4% inflation rate it predicted last month.

“The U.S. had nearly beaten back inflation but tariffs will breathe new life into inflation,” Caldwell said.

He added that uncertainty over whether Trump will change his mind on tariffs or back down on them, and over whether other nations will retaliate and escalate the tariff war makes it difficult to predict what tariff levels will be. Morningstar estimates the average U.S. tariff rate will be 25% and will be at 18% at the end of the year.

Tariffs 'are here for the long haul'

“In our prior forecast, we thought tariff threats were largely saber-rattling,” Caldwell said. “But we now think high tariffs are here for the long haul.”

Tariffs bring shocks to both supply and demand, he said. On the supply side, tariffs drag on economic efficiency. Tariffs bring fiscal contraction and uncertainty to the demand side. Both supply and demand shocks pull down real GDP.

“This hit to the supply side is permanent if the tariffs aren’t removed,” he said. “The bigger demand-side issue is uncertainty that could lead to firms and households cutting back on spending. This all makes it hard for businesses to plan for a new tariff regime. Putting all this together, we expect supply shocks to dominate.”

Morningstar believes it’s unlikely that tariffs will reduce the U.S. trade deficit, Caldwell said. The impact of tariffs on the current deficit should be offset by retaliation and U.S. dollar appreciation, unless confidence in the U.S. collapses so capital flows contract. “It’s extremely unlikely that tariffs will make a dent in the current deficit,” he said.

“We are projecting that GDP will decline and there will be a surge in imports as companies in the U.S. race to stock up on foreign-made goods before the tariffs take effect,” Caldwell said.

U.S. job growth “still is in solid territory,” he added but slowing GDP growth is likely to drag job growth downward later in the year.

Morningstar predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and in the next two years, with three cuts in 2025, three in 2026 and two in 2027.

© Entire contents copyright 2025 by InsuranceNewsNet.com Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reprinted without the expressed written consent from InsuranceNewsNet.com.