Zhejiang University Reports Findings in Health Services (Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China): Health and Medicine – Health Services

2024 APR 25 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Daily China News -- New research on Health and Medicine - Health Services is the subject of a report. According to news reporting originating from Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China, by NewsRx correspondents, research stated, “China has piloted Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) to address increasing care demand. However, many cities neglected adjusting LTCI premiums since the pilot, risking the long-term sustainability of LTCI.”

Financial support for this research came from Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province.

Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from Zhejiang University, “Therefore, using Zhejiang Province as a case, this study simulated mortality-adjusted long-term care demand and the balance of LTCI funds through dynamic financing mechanism under diverse life expectancy and disability scenarios. Three-parameter log-quadratic model was used to estimate the mortality from 1990 to 2020. Mortality with predicted interval from 2020 to 2080 was projected by Lee-Carter method extended with rotation. Cohort-component projection model was used to simulate the number of older population with different degrees of disability. Disability data of the older people is sourced from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2018. The balance of LTCI fund was simulated by dynamic financing actuarial model. Life expectancy of Zhejiang for male (female) is from 80.46 (84.66) years in 2020 to 89.39 [86.61, 91.74] (91.24 [88.90, 93.25]) years in 2080. The number of long-term care demand with severe disability in Zhejiang demonstrates an increasing trend from 285 [276, 295] thousand in 2023 to 1027 [634, 1657] thousand in 2080 under predicted mean of life expectancy. LTCI fund in Zhejiang will become accumulated surplus from 2024 to 2080 when annual premium growth rate is 5.25% [4.20%, 6.25%] under various disability scenarios, which is much higher than the annual growth of unit cost of long-term care services (2.25%). The accumulated balance of LTCI fund is sensitive with life expectancy. Dynamic growth of LTCI premium is essential in dealing with current deficit around 2050 and realizing Zhejiang’s LTCI sustainability in the long-run. The importance of dynamic monitoring disability and mortality information is emphasized to respond immediately to the increase of premiums. LTCI should strike a balance between expanding coverage and controlling financing scale.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “This study provides implications for developing countries to establish or pilot LTCI schemes.”

For more information on this research see: Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China. BMC Health Services Research, 2024;24(1):469. BMC Health Services Research can be contacted at: Bmc, Campus, 4 Crinan St, London N1 9XW, England. (BioMed Central - http://www.biomedcentral.com/; BMC Health Services Research - http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmchealthservres/)

The news editors report that additional information may be obtained by contacting Xueying Xu, School of International Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China. Additional authors for this research include Yichao Li and Hong Mi.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-024-10875-7. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Publisher contact information for the journal BMC Health Services Research is: Bmc, Campus, 4 Crinan St, London N1 9XW, England.

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