With hopes of ‘wave election,’ Democrats lining up to take on Rep. Ann Wagner

Jan. 07--By most standard political metrics, U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Ballwin, should be able to safely count on re-election to a fourth term in November.

But at least four Democrats are banking on this not being a standard political year, with a historically unpopular Republican president, an even less popular Republican Congress -- and Wagner tied to both.

"If this is a wave election, any Republican in a suburban district is going to be wary of the possibility of losing their job," says political science professor Dave Robertson of the University of Missouri at St. Louis. "We've seen more wave elections than not since the first decade of the century. There is reason for incumbents to worry."

Wagner's 2nd Congressional District sits outside St. Louis city, spanning parts of St. Charles, Jefferson and St. Louis counties. The Cook Political Report ranks it as "Solid Republican."

Still, it's the kind of political landscape where many experts believe this year's war for control of Congress will be fought: in suburbia, where Republicans tend to be of the "country club" rather than "Tea Party" variety, and where polls find discomfort with the direction of the national GOP.

Recent numbers suggests that Wagner is Missouri's most vulnerable Congressional Republican -- but that still isn't very vulnerable.

Wagner won re-election last time with more than 58 percent of the vote and a 21-percentage-point margin over her nearest challenger. While those are solid numbers, they're softer than those of Missouri's five other incumbent House Republicans. They all won their re-elections with percentages in the high 60s or 70s, and margins over their closest challengers of about 40 or even 50 points.

While it's too early to say if the national Democrats will put money into the race this year, "this is a district that is definitely in our battlefield" of about 90 GOP districts nationwide that the Democrats will consider targeting, said Rachel Irwin, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

"The Missouri 2nd is a well-educated suburban affluent district," Irwin noted. "We're seeing these (types of) districts trending our favor."

Working in Wagner's favor is that no GOP primary challenger has yet emerged, nor seems likely to. And the Democratic field so far contains no proven threats.

If Wagner's seat was widely seen as vulnerable, the race would probably draw in sitting state legislators or others with established political credentials. But three of the four Democrats currently in the race have zero elective experience between them, and the fourth has lost elections for every office he's sought above the school board level.

"It is a little surprising that there's not more people with political experience in the race," says Robertson. "I think that speaks to Wagner's strength. She's going to have lots and lot of money to fend off a challenger."

That much is certain. Wagner, a long-time party establishment figure with a deep political résumé, was sitting on $3.3 million in campaign cash as of her last financial disclosure report in October -- about 12 times more than is currently available to the four Democrats combined.

"Anyone who takes her on is probably going to be outspent," said Robertson, in what might be the safest prediction of this election year.

Wagner had been viewed as a potential challenger this year to U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., but Wagner made a surprise announcement in July that she would instead seek re-election to her current seat.

Candidates have until March 27 to file for the Aug. 7 primaries. Those currently seeking the Democratic nomination, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission, are St. Louis elected school board member Bill Haas; political science professor John Messmer; Army veteran Mark Osmack; and lawyer Cort VanOstran.

The Democratic candidates

--Haas, 73, was the Democratic nominee for the Second District in 2008, and lost to Wagner's predecessor, former U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, R-Wildwood, by a ratio of almost two to one. A St. Louis resident who doesn't live in the Second District, Haas also has run in the past for the 1st Congressional District, St. Louis mayor, St. Louis alderman, the Missouri House and the Missouri lieutenant governor's office.

Haas' campaign fundraising so far consists almost entirely of $63,000 in loans from himself, with about $37,000 of that still on hand after spending for a series of self-narrated radio spots that began airing last week. Haas says his fundraising strategy includes lottery ticket purchases.

"I expect a competitive primary," said Haas, who stresses that "I'm the only one who has held elective office" among the Democrats. His top campaign issue, he said, is increasing education funding.

--Messmer, 50, is a political science professor at St. Louis Community College at Meramec, and founder of Missourians for Government Reform. He has not raised any money.

A south St. Louis County resident, Messmer said his campaign will focus on ethics and political reform. He says he will call for reinstating -- by constitutional amendment if necessary -- campaign finance restrictions that have been removed in recent years. He would also address issues like gerrymandering and revolving-door lobbying.

"I've been paying attention as to what feeling I get from my students in the classroom. There is a cynicism that is deep, there's disappointment that is rock-solid," said Messmer. "There is a definitely appetite for someone to run as a reform candidate."

--Osmack, 35, of Creve Coeur, is an Army veteran who served two tours in Afghanistan. He says he will focus on health care, education and veterans' issues. He estimated he has "between $25,000 and $30,000" in campaign funds on hand.

"I don't think you should have to join the Army or go to prison to have health care," said Osmack. He is calling for more education funding and a higher minimum wage, supports abortion rights and gun control, and he intends to make a central campaign theme of "ending these damned conflicts" in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Asked whether he was concerned those issues might not play well in a generally conservative district, Osmack countered: "I'm being bold. ... The Democratic Party loses because they don't take a stand on issues."

--VanOstran, 29, of Clayton, a lawyer, is leading the Democratic pack in terms of money raised so far, with more than $182,000 on hand as of October, according to campaign records.

"We think we are in a much better position to challenge Ann Wagner than anyone has had since she's been running," said VanOstran -- who, like Messmer and Osmack, hasn't run for political office before.

VanOstran criticized Wagner for her support of President Donald Trump and her failure to conduct open "town hall"-style events in her district. He added: "The most central driving issue for me is Ann Wagner's vote on health care," seeking to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

Previously announced Democratic candidate Kelli Dunaway, a field organizer in Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign, confirmed last week that she had dropped out of the race.

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