Weekly Forex Forecast of Major Markets: Major Markets Show Diverging Momentum After Central Bank Decisions

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 continues to see buyers on dips this past week, as we are looking very much like a market that is in a range, and now that we have gotten back the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England interest rate decisions, we have finished the market week on the right path. Bulls are still in control from what I see. This market is currently watching the 30,000 level as a ceiling.

EUR/USD

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The euro has crumbled a bit this past week, as we have seen the Federal Reserve raise rates and suggest that there are more of those hikes coming. This is catching the markets off balance just a bit, as traders were thinking that the Fed might be a “one-and-done” central bank. Ultimately, there are now major energy supply concerns in the European Union as well.

Gold

Gold had a volatile week, and with all of the central banks out there active, this makes perfect sense. At this point, the market has seen a bit of value hunting, as the 50-week EMA has held as support. When I look at this market, it has the air of a “sideways market”, with perhaps a bit of bullish pressure underneath. The $4500 level above is a target, but also a potential ceiling. Gold traders will have to watch the interest rates around the world, especially in the United States. Higher yields could work against the gold market, as we have seen recently.

GBP/JPY

The British pound against Japanese yen has rallied this past week, as although there was an interest rate hike in Japan and the Bank of England held, the markets are reading the press conference by the Japanese as a sign that maybe they aren’t overly aggressive going forward. With this, we have seen the yen sell off against all things, including the GBP at the moment. This is a Japanese yen-related move more than anything else, as the GBP itself is a bit lackluster against many other currencies.

USD/CAD

The US dollar has jumped against the Loonie this week, with Kevin Warsh being more hawkish than the market anticipated. At the same time, we have a tariff situation between the United States and Canada causing issues, and this is a market that looks like we are going to continue to follow the interest rate differential, meaning a stronger US dollar.

USD/JPY

The US dollar jumped higher against the Japanese yen this past week, as the Federal Reserve raised rates and sounded more hawkish than the Bank of Japan, despite the Japanese raising rates. At this point, it looks like we are back to the carry trade as we head back into the weekend. The 50-week EMA is currently looking resistive, but the move above it opens up a bigger move.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rallied this week and closed Friday looking at the massive resistance barrier at $83,000. This is an area that has been a problem recently, and it looks like it will continue to be an area of supply at this point. The market breaking above that area would be a very strong sign, but we will have to see if it can get above there. If not, we are looking at more of the same range we have seen over the last month or so. Bitcoin is still trying to figure out where it wants to go, after that big move higher previously seen.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell for the week, as traders compared the difference in tone between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. This is a market that is still in a range that has been in effect most of the year, with the 1.3250 area as being support, and the 1.37 level above being a ceiling. At this point, the interest rate differential is barely noticeable. The previous actions of GBP may not be where we are going to be now.