USD/JPY Analysis: Attempts to Break the Uptrend – 06 November 2024

-- With Trump’s victory now confirmed, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 151.35, reflecting renewed strength for the U.S. dollar.
-- Markets anticipate that a Trump presidency could reduce the need for further easing by the Federal Reserve, as business-friendly policies are expected to stimulate economic activity independently.
-- This outlook supports a bullish trend for the dollar and could increase Treasury yields as market confidence builds in the post-election environment.
-- In contrast, there are no catalysts from Japan, but it is worth noting that the Bank of Japan turned to a less pessimistic stance in its policy statement last week.

According to stock trading platforms, Wall Street indices are booming on Election Day. US stocks rose on Election Day as investors awaited the outcome of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The S&P 500 rose 1%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3% and the Dow Jones rose about 400 points. All sectors were in the green, with consumer discretionary, industrials and technology leading the gains. Chipmakers outperformed, with Nvidia up 2.5%, Intel up 3.4% and Broadcom up 2.6%, driven by strong demand for AI data centres reflected in strong third-quarter earnings from Astera Labs on Monday. Major tech stocks also rose, including Meta (up 1.6%), Amazon (up 1.7%) and Tesla (up 4.8%). However, Boeing shares fell 2% as workers accepted a new Labor deal, ending a strike. Looking beyond the election, markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Thursday, with traders widely expecting a 25-basis point rate cut. Furthermore, investors remain cautious about potential market volatility if the election results face delays or disputes.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

USD/JPY has been trending higher in the past few days, with higher lows connected by a bullish trend line that has held since late September. Technically, the price could be on the verge of testing this support area again soon. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows additional levels where buyers may be waiting. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 149.27 is near the trend line, then the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 147.81 is near the dynamic support of the 200 SMA. The ascending retracement line could be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 146.35, as a break below this level could signal the start of a reversal.

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Meanwhile, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the stronger resistance path is upwards or that support is likely to hold rather than break. Clearly, the gap between the indicators appears to be widening to reflect strong upward pressures. If any of these indicators hold as support, USD/JPY could resume its climb to the high of 154.00 or higher. Stochastic is already rising from oversold territory to signal a revival of bullish pressures, and the oscillator has plenty of room to run before hitting overbought territory to signal exhaustion. The RSI has some room to slide before hitting oversold territory to signal exhaustion, so the correction may continue until that happens.

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Original Source DailyForex.com provides daily fundamental and technical analysis and signals for those looking to trade based on trends in the currency markets.