Uncertainty over nearshoring threatens industrial real estate sector

The rating agency Fitch Ratings warned that in the face of the uncertainty generated by the trade policies of US President Donald Trump, companies in the industrial real estate sector will face lower investment and growth.

They point out that the revision of the Mexico, United States, Canada Treaty (T-MEC) and recent changes in international trade have cast doubt on the trajectory of nearshoring.

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Fitch notes that the obstacles have been mitigated by conservative business models, solid occupancy rates and stable financial profiles.

The trade war initiated this year by the United States generated significant uncertainty led Fitch Ratings to drastically lower its forecasts for economic growth.

The rating agency, forecasting the current scenario, expects Mexico's GDP to suffer a 0.4 percent decline in 2025 and will have a 0.8 percentage point recovery in 2026.

"While the magnitude, scope and permanence of tariffs and potential retaliatory measures are still unclear, the uncertainty is already prompting Mexican real estate companies to reassess the timing of their investments and consider alternative scenarios as demand slows," it said.

The rating agency considered that tariffs are likely to have a greater impact on issuers with greater exposure to the manufacturing sector.

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They explain that close to 80 percent of the manufacturing sector's clients are exporters and the United States is the main market to which they send their products.

They point out that the automotive industry is one of the sectors most vulnerable to tariffs and represents almost 25 percent of the gross profitable area of the issuers rated by the agency in the sector.