Tropical Storm Nicole strengthens as hurricane warning and evacuations issued for parts of Florida

Weather will worsen across Florida’s southeast coast Wednesday, as Tropical Storm Nicole nears the state and achieves predicted hurricane strength by the time it reaches land.

Palm Beach County ordered coastal communities and vulnerable areas to evacuate in preparation for a possible direct hit, as schools closed and residents braced for a strike by a rare November hurricane.

Nicole’s winds held at 70 mph Wednesday morning, with the storm expected to reach Florida’s east coast as a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday night or early Thursday, according to the 4 a.m. Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center.

The slight shift of the forecast path to the south led to a small increase in the predicted chances of hurricane-force and tropical-force winds for Broward and Palm Beach counties, according to the National Weather Service.

The chance of sustained hurricane-force winds, which means speed of at least 74 mph, stood at 10-15% for northeastern Palm Beach County, 5-10% for the rest of Palm Beach County and less than 5% for the rest of South Florida. The odds of high-end tropical-force winds, which means speeds of at least 58 mph, was 20-40% in Palm Beach County and 10-20% in Broward County, with the highest risk at the northern end of each county.

At 4 a.m. Wednesday, the storm was 270 miles east of West Palm Beach, moving west-southwest at 13 mph, according to the hurricane center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 460 miles from Nicole’s center.

Ana Torres-Vazquez, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said the storm is so large that the precise point of landfall is less important, with all of South Florida at risk of high winds and storm surge.

“Sometime late night Wednesday into Thursday during the day will be the main period of the event,” she said. “But conditions will gradually deteriorate. We’ve already seen conditions that are windy and breezy. [By Wednesday,] you’ll see that slow uptick in wind speeds and that gradual rise in dangerous rain conditions.”

Palm Beach County ordered the evacuation of zones A and B, which includes barrier islands, low-lying areas and mobile home communities, County Mayor Robert Weinroth said at a 2 p.m. news conference. Residents can check their evacuation zone here.

The evacuations, which are effective at 7 a.m. Wednesday, apply to about 52,000 residents of mobile homes throughout the county and 67,000 coastal residents, Palm Beach County Administrator Verdenia Baker said.

“We saw what happened in Lee County,” Weinroth said, referring to the storm surge from Hurricane Ian that drowned coastal residents. “There were people who stayed put because they felt that there was not an emergency, and a lot of those people regretted their decision.”

At Meadowbrooke Mobile Home Park in West Palm Beach, some residents were surprised to hear they were being ordered to evacuate. Some planned to leave, others hadn’t made up their minds.

“It is scary,” said Ashley Flores, 15, whose family had not evacuated in her 10 years there and remained on the fence about leaving. “But we’re just letting it play out however it goes.”

Jessica Mayouin, 21, said she and her three family members who live with her may decide to stay at a relative’s home in the county rather than staying in their manufactured home.

“This is very weak,” she said of their trailer.

Esmeralda Gomez, who lives in the mobile home community with her children and extended family, said she and her family will likely go to a hotel to wait out the storm.

“I feel like it’s safer for the kids,” she said.

Public schools will be closed Wednesday in Broward and Miami-Dade counties and Wednesday and Thursday in Palm Beach County.

Palm Beach County announced that several shelters will open at 7 a.m. Wednesday at seven schools: Independence Middle School, Palm Beach Gardens High School, Palm Beach Central High School, Park Vista High School, Lake Shore Middle School, Pahokee Middle-Senior High and Dr. Mary McLeod Bethune Elementary School. There is a pet-friendly shelter at West Boynton Recreation Center.

A hurricane warning was issued Tuesday from Palm Beach County through Volusia County. A hurricane warning means winds of 74 mph or greater are expected within 36 hours.

“Anywhere in that area — West Palm Beach, Stuart, Melbourne, up to Daytona Beach — is at risk of hurricane conditions, as we are expecting Nicole to take advantage of this warm water and intensify to a hurricane as it approaches the coast,” Michael Brennan, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a Facebook broadcast.

Under the storm’s current track, the highest threat in South Florida is to northeastern Palm Beach County, according to the National Weather Service.

“Damaging hurricane force winds expected in portions of coastal Palm Beach County (east of I-95) Wednesday night/pre-dawn Thursday,” the weather service said. “Damaging tropical storm force winds expected over most of the remainder of Palm Beach County, as well as parts of Broward County mainly near and along the coast.”

Nicole is expected to reach a top wind speed of 75 mph by the time it approaches Florida, putting the storm at Category 1 hurricane strength.

After approaching Florida on Wednesday night or early Thursday, Nicole will move across central and northern Florida and into southern Georgia on Thursday and Thursday night, the center’s latest advisory said.

“Life-threatening” storm surge is possible along the Broward and Palm Beach county coasts, the National Weather Service said. Storm surge, the wind-driven rise in sea levels that accounted for many of the deaths when Hurricane Ian hit the Gulf coast in September, could reach 2 to 4 feet in South Florida and be “accompanied by “large and destructive waves,” the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm’s wind field, shown on the hurricane center’s map in dark yellow, is unusually large, which means that wherever Nicole’s center strikes, the entire east coast of Florida is likely to face high winds, heavy rain and storm surge.

“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone,” the hurricane center said at 5 a.m. Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions, meaning winds of at least 39 mph, could arrive in Florida early Wednesday, intensifying to hurricane conditions that night.

Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency in 34 Florida counties, including Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, on Monday.

Florida Division of Emergency Management officials advise to stock up on a week’s worth of non-perishable packaged and canned foods and beverages, one gallon of water per person per day, non-electric can openers, paper and plastic utensils, pet food and supplies, gasoline, first-aid supplies, medications, cell phone chargers, batteries, flashlights and cash and to secure important documents.

South Florida effects

Eric Silagy, president and CEO of Florida Power & Light Company, cautioned that the storm will cause power outages as trees and vegetation that were weakened during recent Hurricane Ian get knocked down.

“It is very likely that we will see outages from the storm,” Silagy said.

Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Lake Okeechobee and Flagler/Volusia County line to Ponte Vedra Beach are under a hurricane watch. A hurricane warning is in place for several islands in the northwestern Bahamas and Boca Raton to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Lake Okeechobee, the Flagler/Volusia County line to Altamaha Sound in Georgia and several islands in the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm watches are in place for south of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef, north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River and north of Altamaha Sound in Georgia to the South Santee River in South Carolina.

A storm surge watch has been extended west along the panhandle from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass. Storm surge watches are in place from south of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach, from the Anclote River to the Ochlockonee River and from Altamaha Sound in Georgia to the South Santee River in South Carolina. Storm surge warnings are in effect for North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound and the mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown in Florida.

South Florida will see the heaviest of any rainfall from the storm between Wednesday and Thursday, according to the weather service. Between 4 and 6 inches are expected in parts of Palm Beach County and Broward County, though higher amounts in some areas are possible.

“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the hurricane center’s latest advisory said.

From Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach, storm surge could reach 2 to 4 feet and 1 to 2 feet from north of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach, including Biscayne Bay. From North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, storm surge could reach 3 to 5 feet, the center’s latest advisory said.

Some tornadoes may be possible in eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina late Wednesday night through Friday, the hurricane center said.

Forecasters are also monitoring a stormy area of low pressure located 950 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands in the central Atlantic Tuesday night. Forecasters said it is expected to merge with a cold front Wednesday and has low odds of developing in the next five days.

There have been two major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above, so far this season: Fiona and Ian.

The next named storm to form would be Owen.

NOAA has predicted at least four more hurricanes will form before hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

This is a developing story, so check back for updates. Click here to have breaking news alerts sent directly to your inbox.

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