Tropical Storm Dorian will cross Puerto Rico, and may reach Florida as a hurricane

Aug. 28--A stronger Tropical Storm Dorian is on track to cross over Puerto Rico on Wednesday and could develop into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it nears Florida's coast.

Strengthened overnight to near hurricane level, the storm is moving northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is expected to bring up to six inches of rain to Puerto Rico and the U.S. British Virgin Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. Isolated areas could see up to 10 inches of rain and life-threatening flash floods, surf and rip current conditions will be possible.

Dorian is about 60 miles southeast of St. Croix, one of the U.S. Virgin Islands, according to the hurricane's center 8 a.m. Wednesday advisory.

The track shows the eye of the storm passing over or near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later Wednesday. Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane in about two days, when it passes near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos islands and the Bahamas by Friday and Saturday, according to the advisory.

By the time Dorian nears Florida's east coast, it could be a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center's interactive map.

Forecasters say the "threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions" in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased, but it's still too early to know exactly how -- or where -- Florida will be affected. But the storm could bring heavy rain up and down the state over the weekend. That's just in time for the second King Tide of the season, a higher than usual high tide that usually brings intense flooding to low-lying regions.

"Please continue to monitor the progress of Dorian through the week," the National Weather Service said in its South Florida hazardous weather outlook Wednesday. "Now is a good time to make sure your household hurricane plan is in order."

The National Weather Service advised this week that Florida could see drenching rain and maybe even flooding from Dorian later this week and into early next week. Forecasters expect four to eight inches of rain, with isolated areas seeing up to 10 inches of rain.

A late afternoon track shift on Tuesday took Dorian from shooting the gap between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to an eastern tilt directly through Puerto Rico, which is still hurting from the direct hit it took from Hurricane Maria two years ago.

The storm is expected to test the island's ragged infrastructure and rebuilding process, which was strained by slow federal and insurance payouts, as well as its fledgling government.

Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands are under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. The British Virgin islands are under a tropical storm warning. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed its watches and warnings. An early Wednesday morning advisory listed Isla Saona to Puerto Plata as being under both a tropical storm warning and a tropical storm watch. As of 8 a.m., the tropical storm warning was lifted. Isla Saona to Samana are now under a tropical storm watch.

There's still plenty of time for the forecast to shift.

The crucial information for forecasters is what happens to Dorian when it crosses over Puerto Rico. Will it be shredded by the island's mountains? Or will the small storm keep it together and make it out into more favorable conditions?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tweeted Tuesday that "all residents on the East Coast should prepare for impacts, including strong wings, heavy rain and flooding."

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