Trends favor Tommy Tuberville in Senate election, but plenty of questions remain

The consensus on Alabama’s U.S. Senate race: For now, it’s Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville’s to lose.

Alabama leans Republican and has supported GOP presidential nominees in every election since 1980. Donald Trump won Alabama by 28 points in 2016 and will lead a Republican ticket in a state where nearly two-thirds of voters cast a straight-ticket ballot in 2018 – and where 60% of those ballots went to the GOP.

“I think that people are going to vote for a Republican in Alabama,” said Richard Fording, a political science professor at the University of Alabama. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Doug Jones can win, in my opinion. Barring anything extraordinary happening. But we’re in an extraordinary time.”

Jones showed an ability to buck trends and take advantage of opposition mistakes in 2017. With a significant war chest, the incumbent has signaled that he’ll fight for every inch of ground in the next three-and-a-half months, with a strong emphasis on his response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

More: Nearly two-thirds of Alabama voters chose straight-ticket option

There are also plenty of questions that need answering, said political observers, including the general election strategies the two candidates pursue. The biggest is whether the COVID-19 outbreak will continue to be an issue for public health and the economy in November, and if so, how that affects the electorate on Election Day.

Battle lines

Both campaigns outlined their approaches after Tuberville defeated former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate on Tuesday. The former Auburn head football coach hit Jones on his support for abortion rights while emphasizing his own support for President Donald Trump and a broad social conservative agenda.

“Doug Jones’ Alabama is not the conservative state that we love, and embrace and defend,” he said. “It’s a liberal fantasy. A liberal fantasy is what Doug Jones believes in.”

In a statement on the runoff election, Jones stressed his work on Alabama issues, including efforts to secure money for state farmers and rural hospitals and efforts to protect access to health insurance for those with pre-existing conditions. Jones plans to make health care a major issue in the fall campaign.

“The choice before the voters is an unprepared hyper-partisan that will add to the divide in Washington, or my proven track record to find common ground and get things done,” the statement said.

More: Tommy Tuberville defeats Jeff Sessions in Alabama GOP Senate runoff

The early attacks have followed those opening salvos. The National Republican Senate Committee released a video on Thursday that claimed “the one thing Doug Jones doesn’t want you to know” is “he’s a Democrat. That’s it.”

Democrats, meanwhile, have followed lines of attack used by Sessions near the end of the runoff campaign, including Tuberville’s handling of an Auburn wideout initially accused of statutory rape in 1999 and his role in a hedge fund in which his partner was later convicted of fraud (Tuberville was not charged, and his campaign says he was a victim of the affair.) The party has also questioned Tuberville’s preparedness for the U.S. Senate and mocked his football coaching career, including his abrupt departures from the University of Mississippi and Texas Tech.

“Tuberville couldn’t score a TD for 2 weeks with 4 first rounders on his offense,” the Alabama Democratic Party tweeted Tuesday. “He also lost to Vanderbilt.”

Ryan Williamson, a political science professor at Auburn University, said Thursday he would expect that line of attack to continue, along with emphasis on Tuberville's lack of political experience.

“His digs at Tuberville have been more about personality and character than about issues,” he said. “Jones probably can’t win on a pure issue-based campaign, so he’s going to try to impugn the character of Tuberville.”

Fording said he thought Tuberville’s best strategy in the general election was to run a traditional GOP campaign, with an emphasis on issues like abortion and law enforcement. He also said he didn’t need to lean too much into his support for Trump in the general election. Trump supporters, Fording said, aren’t likely to split their tickets, and speaking too much about the president could spur more Democratic turnout.

“I think in the general election, all he needs to do is run as traditional conservative Republican, with conservative values,” he said. “I don’t think he needs to talk about Trump or play up his relationship with Trump.”

Angi Horn Stalnaker, a Republican consultant, also said that Tuberville shouldn’t count on Trump coming to the state to campaign for him.

“If Trump shows up in Alabama in October, the Republican Party has much bigger trouble than the U.S. Senate,” Stalnaker said. “Tuberville is not going to be Trump’s priority.”

Jones, who faced no primary opposition, had $8.8 million on hand on June 30, according to Federal Election Commission reports. Tuberville had $448,000 on June 24, but that number should climb significantly now that he's the nominee. Tuberville will also benefit from support from national Republican groups who see Jones' seat as their best pickup chance this fall.

The math

On the campaign trail in 2017, Jones showed strong message discipline and enjoyed a major cash advantage over Republican nominee Roy Moore, who traditionally struggled with fundraising.

It allowed him to capitalize on plenty of opportunities, the main one being Republicans nominating the former Alabama chief justice. Moore had long been a divisive figure within the state GOP who underperformed the statewide Republican ticket in his re-election campaign in 2012. Allegations that Moore had assaulted, harassed, or acted improperly with several women, which Moore denied, further damaged his standing.

That helped keep GOP turnout down. In the 42 counties Moore won in the December 2017 contest, turnout averaged just under 37%, compared to 40% statewide and 42% in counties that supported Jones, including Jefferson, Mobile, Montgomery and Madison, the state’s four biggest.

More: Enthusiastic Democratic voters delivered Doug Jones a victory

The 2018 gubernatorial election was another story. While Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walt Maddox got about 20,000 more votes than Jones did in 2017, Republican Gov. Kay Ivey -- with none of the former chief justice's baggage -- got nearly 400,000 more votes than Moore did. Ivey outraised Maddox; dominated rural Alabama outside the Black Belt; managed to win Mobile and Madison and avoided major blowouts in Jefferson and Montgomery. In the end, Ivey captured 60% of the vote. Maddox won fewer counties, and the difference in turnout between Democrats and Republicans in those areas was insignificant (50% average in Democratic counties; 49% in Republican ones).

Turnout in that race was 49%, one of the highest recorded in a midterm election in Alabama in recent years. The vast majority of it was straight-ticket voting, putting Democrats at a disadvantage.

More: Suburbs, Wiregrass and national climate power Alabama Republican sweep

“If you’re a Trump voter and you’re not necessarily engaged in state politics or whatever, you can go in and mark your ballot for the Republican, and not think about the rest of it,” said David Mowery, a political consultant who has worked on Democratic and Republican campaigns.

Turnout for the 2016 presidential election in Alabama was about 66%, and it could be higher in the fall. On paper, that should be an advantage to Tuberville.

“A lot of people want to show up and vote,” Williamson said. “Increased turnout does not bode well for Jones.”

Jones will have more resources than Maddox enjoyed. He also supported current Alabama Democratic Party chairman Christopher England's candidacy last year and should have a more engaged state party behind him than in his first Senate bid. Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster with the Montgomery-based firm of Anzalone Liszt Grove in Montgomery, said a higher turnout could give Jones an opportunity.

“The higher the turnout, the less it’s dominated by partisans,” he said. “The higher the turnout gets, you’re pulling into electorate with people who are not party-line voters.”

The specter of COVID

A major question will be what the electorate looks like on Nov. 3, especially if COVID-19 remains a factor. Through July 16, Alabama had recorded more than 60,000 cases of coronavirus and 1,200 deaths.

The outbreak likely contributed to the 17% turnout for the election on Tuesday. Alabama has strict regulations on absentee voting, requiring specific reasons for doing so, photocopies of photo ID and witness signatures, and officials have not shown interest in expanding voting options.

State officials did allow voters to use the outbreak to vote absentee in the runoff, but few voters appear to have done so. While the results are not yet certified, unofficial results from Tuesday said 626,551 people voted. The Alabama Secretary of State’s office said through Thursday officials counted 32,563 absentee ballots or 5% of the total.

“I think there will be a record high intention to vote, but whether people follow through and do the cost-benefit analysis in their head and whether they want to risk it and think it’s a risk that remains to be seen,” Fording said. “And who it would affect remains to be seen.”

It is not clear if the COVID-19 excuse will be allowed in the November general election. Gina Maiola, a spokeswoman for Ivey, wrote in an email Thursday that the governor is "guiding her decisions based on the best information she has available and through conversations with health experts and election officials."

The outbreak has taken a big toll on two groups critical to the outcome of the November election: Black Alabamians, about 27% of the state population but accounting for 43% of the COVID-19 deaths recorded in Alabama, and voters over the age of 65, about 17% percent of the population who have accounted for nearly 79% of deaths.

Black Alabamians of all ages are key to Democratic performance in Alabama; Republicans tend to do better with voters over the age of 65. Fording said it could end up being a wash, but McCrary said Republicans have to be certain their supporters feel comfortable voting.

“He’s got to make sure older Republicans have a comfort level with getting out and voting,” he said. “I think that would be a headache for Tuberville.”

Tuberville kept a relatively low profile in the lead-up to the runoff election, avoiding most interviews and generally not announcing public appearances in advance. But both Stalnaker and Williamson said they didn't think that would work in a fall election, particularly if Jones has the means to keep up the attacks.

"One of Tuberville’s strengths is getting out in front of people," Williamson said. "He has name recognition, but very little of it is related to what are you going to do as a senator. He’s going to have to stick out his neck and say at some point what he'll do."

But it will also be a question of what the incumbent senator does in his re-election campaign.

“Can Doug Jones pull the rabbit out of the hat twice?” said Stalnaker. “That’s what everyone is going to sit around for three months and wonder.”

Contact Montgomery Advertiser reporter Brian Lyman at 334-240-0185 or blyman@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Trends favor Tommy Tuberville in Senate election, but plenty of questions remain

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