The economic outlook
Now reaching 114 months, the
See Outlook/Page 8
"There are some who are calling the current expansion 'long in the tooth,' but I personally do not believe that economic expansion has to die of old age," Hopkins said. "There are indications that it will continue well into 2019."
Some of Hopkins' data included
Notable data for the 2018 year also includes an unemployment rate that dropped to 3.7 percent in September, its lowest level since the Great Recession, when it skyrocketed to 10.2 percent in
Hopkins does not expect the Feds to issue as many interest rate hikes in 2019 as last year. As an indication of their confidence in the
The inflation rate for 2018 was 1.9 percent, down from 2.1 percent for 2016 and 2017. Falling gas prices served as fuel for consumer confidence. At the close of 2018 some drivers were filling their tanks at less than
According to Hopkins, the
International factors that could put pressure on the
This slowdown in the rest of the world will lead to a softer demand for
These risks do not make the outlook for global growth necessarily grim, however, 2019 could be another year of solid growth, albeit slower growth.
Hopkins said it would be tricky to forecast the coming year.
Factors to consider include the Federal Government shutdown, new leadership in the
In looking at equities, the investment market looks attractive, with the S&P 500 trading at only 14 times next year's earnings. All 10 of the top
In looking at trucking and rail time indicators, these show no indications of a recession.
Factors that could affect the 2019 climate include local population trends.
Hopkins feels that in the coming months, the effects of fiscal stimulus will begin to fade. Economic growth may be hindered with the difficulty in hiring and retaining qualified personnel.
Overall, the 10 leading economic indicators (10 components of the macroeconomic status) are still on uptrend.
Hopkins concluded with the sentiments: "Best wishes for a safe and prosperous 2019."
Staff writer
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