The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July
"The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes |
||||||||
2019 |
6-month |
|||||||
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Jan to Jul |
|||||
Leading Index |
111.7 |
r |
111.6 |
r |
112.2 |
p |
||
Percent Change |
-0.1 |
r |
-0.1 |
r |
0.5 |
p |
0.8 |
|
Diffusion |
55.0 |
55.0 |
55.0 |
70.0 |
||||
Coincident Index |
105.8 |
106.0 |
r |
106.2 |
p |
|||
Percent Change |
0.1 |
r |
0.2 |
r |
0.2 |
p |
0.6 |
|
Diffusion |
87.5 |
100.0 |
75.0 |
50.0 |
||||
Lagging Index |
107.3 |
r |
107.8 |
r |
108.5 |
p |
||
Percent Change |
-0.1 |
r |
0.5 |
r |
0.6 |
p |
1.6 |
|
Diffusion |
50.0 |
57.1 |
64.3 |
71.4 |
||||
p Preliminary r Revised |
||||||||
Indexes equal 100 in 2016 |
||||||||
Source: |
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