Economists and market indicators for weeks have signaled a possible recession at some point in the next 15 months -- and more than two-thirds of Americans will blame President Donald Trump if one arrives, a new survey said Wednesday.
A Morning Consult-Politico poll showed 69 percent of respondents would blame the recession on the ongoing trade war with China, among other factors.
Among those who voted for Trump in 2016, nearly half (49 percent) said they would hold him at least partially responsible for a major economic downturn between now and Election Day 2020. Forty percent would absolve him of blame.
In recent weeks, there have been indicators analysts say sometimes foreshadow a recession -- including a nosedive for 10- and 30-year Treasury bonds last week. A survey of economists this week showed most project a recession by 2021.
Recent signals notwithstanding, the growing economy has been one of Trump's strongest political assets over his first two years in office. The job market and Wall Street have seen substantial gains over that time, and unemployment remains at a 50-year low.
"I don't think we're having a recession," Trump said last weekend. "We're doing tremendously well."
Trump said Tuesday he's considering a payroll tax cut to stimulate the economy, and has repeatedly pushed the Federal Reserve to cut key interest rates. The Fed did so at its policy meeting last month for the first time in 11 years.