Study Data from University of Malta Update Understanding of Risk Management (Assessing the Causality Relationship between the Geopolitical Risk Index and the Agricultural Commodity Markets): Insurance – Risk Management

Insurance Daily News

2023 MAY 16 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Daily News -- Fresh data on risk management are presented in a new report. According to news reporting out of the University of Malta by NewsRx editors, research stated, “The aim of this study was to investigate the Granger causality between geopolitical risk (GPR) sub-indices in order to examine the implications of geopolitical risk on ten agricultural commodities classified as softs or grains.”

Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from University of Malta: “The Granger causality test was used to determine the causal relationship between the daily GPR sub-indices and the future prices of ten essential agricultural commodities from 31 March 2000 to 31 March 2022. We discovered that the GPR Threat and Act sub-indices Granger-caused changes in the wheat and oat commodity prices. These findings were also connected to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has had an impact on agricultural commodity prices because both countries are major agricultural producers. The empirical results also showed how the GPR Threat sub-index Granger-affected the future prices of soybean oil, coffee, wheat, and oats.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “On the other hand, the GPR Act sub-index only Granger-affected the future price of oats. The findings of this study should provide useful information to both policymakers and governments to help them acknowledge the importance of geopolitical risk when setting their national policies related to food security.”

For more information on this research see: Assessing the Causality Relationship between the Geopolitical Risk Index and the Agricultural Commodity Markets. Risks, 2023,11(5). (Risks - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/risks). The publisher for Risks is MDPI AG.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11050084.

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting Joseph Micallef, Department of Insurance and Risk Management, Faculty of Economics Management and Accountancy, University of Malta, MSD 2080 Msida, Malta. Additional authors for this research include Simon Grima, Jonathan Spiteri, Ramona Rupeika-Apoga.

ORCID is an identifier for authors and includes bibliographic information. The following is ORCID information for the authors of this research: Simon Grima (http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1523-5120), Jonathan Spiteri (http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4542-1015).