Studies from National Changhua University of Education Yield New Data on Risk Management (Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a…

Studies from National Changhua University of Education Yield New Data on Risk Management (Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- Data detailed on Risk Management have been presented. According to news reporting from Changhua, Taiwan, by VerticalNews journalists, research stated, "In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate."

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from the National Changhua University of Education, "In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback-Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach."

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: "For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed."

For more information on this research see: Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging. Risk Analysis, 2016;36(10):1855-1870. Risk Analysis can be contacted at: Wiley-Blackwell, 111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, NJ, USA. (Wiley-Blackwell - www.wiley.com/; Risk Analysis - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting C.S. Chen, Natl Changhua Univ Educ, Inst Stat & Informat Sci, Changhua, Taiwan. Additional authors for this research include C.S. Chen, M.F. Huang and H.C. Lin.

Keywords for this news article include: Changhua, Taiwan, Asia, Risk Management, National Changhua University of Education.

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