Studies from Federal Reserve Bank Update Current Data on COVID-19 (The Dynamics of Long-run Inflation Expectations: a Market-based Perspective): Coronavirus – COVID-19

2026 FEB 26 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at NewsRx COVID-19 Daily -- Current study results on Coronavirus - COVID-19 have been published. According to news reporting originating from St. Louis, Missouri, by NewsRx correspondents, research stated, “This article analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.”

Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from Federal Reserve Bank, “By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the elevated probability of inflation exceeding the 2 percent target that persisted shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “The findings underscore the importance of market-based tools in capturing nuanced inflation dynamics and informing policy and financial decisions.”

This research has been peer-reviewed.

For more information on this research see: The Dynamics of Long-run Inflation Expectations: a Market-based Perspective. Review, 2025;107(13):1-14. Review can be contacted at: Federal Reserve Bank St Louis, Box 442, St Louis, MO 63166, USA.

The news editors report that additional information may be obtained by contacting Anna Cole, Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis, MO 63102, United States. Additional authors for this research include Julian Kozlowski and Joseph Martorana.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2025.13. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

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