Speaker Madigan edges toward supermajority with anti-Trump push in suburbs

Chicago Tribune (IL)

Nov. 07--Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan edged closer to regaining his supermajority Tuesday night as he waited for the results in about a handful of suburban races.

Democrats picked up state House seats in Palatine and central Illinois and held late leads in Republican-held districts in Lombard, West Chicago and northern Lake County. But Democrats also lost a seat to the GOP in far southern Illinois as Madigan tried for a net gain of four seats to get back to 71 House Democrats.

"Tonight's successes were achieved not by trying to divide people, but by looking to what unites us. Not by running from responsibility, but by speaking honestly about the challenges we face," Madigan said in a statement. "This will be our path forward with a new Democratic governor, expanded majorities in the state House and Senate. ... We look forward to putting the long-term health of our state first again. And I look forward to continuing to work with Democrats and Republicans throughout Illinois to get our state back on track."

Two years ago, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cost Madigan his veto-proof margin by leading a charge in southern Illinois and other conservative pockets around the state that saw the GOP score a net gain of four seats. But Trump did not fare well in the suburbs, and this time around, Madigan sought to capitalize on that antipathy toward the president by targeting several seats in historically Republican areas like DuPage and the northwest suburbs.

Madigan-led Democrats dumped an avalanche of negative advertising into races that tied Republican House candidates to unpopular Trump messages, and they portrayed incumbent GOP lawmakers as taking votes that supported wide-open gun rights and hurt women and social programs. In turn, Republicans sought to re-energize their party's disenchanted voters by warning that complacency risked empowering Madigan even more. Republicans had hoped to gain ground after the speaker pushed through a major state income tax increase in July 2017 and ended a yearslong budget impasse with Gov. Bruce Rauner.

Senate President John Cullerton's Democratic troops were seeking to expand a 37-22 lead over Republicans, already having one more than the minimum 36 needed for a supermajority. Again the battleground was centered on DuPage County, where a hot congressional race between Republican U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam and Democratic challenger Sean Casten had spurred Democratic hopes for a wave election. In early returns, Senate Democrats had picked up a northwest suburban Senate seat.

Democratic supermajorities in the House and Senate could be of great help to Democratic Gov.-elect J.B. Pritzker, who defeated Rauner on Tuesday. The billionaire challenger campaigned on a promise to drop the current flat-rate income tax and replace it with a graduated income tax, a sliding scale that would impose higher rates on people with the biggest incomes. Pritzker repeatedly declined to say what the different tax rates should be, calling it something to be negotiated with lawmakers.

But such a major change to the state's tax structure would require putting the issue on the 2020 ballot for voters to consider. First, lawmakers would need to approve placing a constitutional amendment question before voters by a three-fifths majority. That would require 71 "yes" votes in the House, and Madigan had 67 Democrats heading into Tuesday night, compared with 51 Republicans.

Even when he had 71 House Democrats in 2014, Madigan was unable to persuade enough of them to put on the ballot a constitutional amendment question creating a higher tax on millionaires. A handful of House Democrats bolted on Madigan, and Republicans didn't vote for the plan.

While a supermajority doesn't come into play all that often, it does factor in when lawmakers are fighting the governor. A three-fifths vote is necessary from both chambers to override a governor's veto. That happened last year when Republicans broke ranks with Rauner to vote for the income tax increase. Rauner vetoed it, but Madigan cobbled together a three-fifths supermajority with the help of Republicans to override the governor. The state income tax rate is now 4.95 percent as a result.

The House and Senate races were funded in part by the wealthy governor candidates. Pritzker put in a record $171.5 million of his fortune into his campaign fund, and Madigan-controlled political accounts got $8.1 million of it, while Cullerton-controlled funds got $5 million. Pritzker's ability to self-fund freed up cash from trial lawyers, unions and other Democrat-aligned interest groups to give to Democratic legislative candidates.

On the Republican side, Rauner transferred $15.4 million to candidates and campaign funds, and $6 million to the House Republican Organization. Senate Republicans got $1.5 million from Chicago hedge fund founder Ken Griffin, $1 million from the Rauner- and Griffin-funded state GOP and $270,000 from conservative businessman Richard Uihlein.

Whatever the outcome Tuesday, Madigan set a personal milestone with his own election from his Southwest Side district, where he was unopposed. The nation's longest-serving speaker, who has held the top House post for all but two years since 1983, will begin his 49th year in the legislature during the new two-year term that starts in January. The biggest supermajority Madigan oversaw was 72-46 in 1991-92, and the speaker would need a net gain of five seats to equal that record.

In the House, the contentious suburban contests found Republican incumbents trying to hold on:

-- In a district once considered staunchly conservative, Democratic challenger Terra Costa Howard had 53 percent of the vote to Republican Rep. Peter Breen's 47 percent, with all precincts reporting. The contest saw abortion rights group Personal PAC spend heavily against Breen, a major abortion rights opponent who was backed by Dan Proft, a conservative radio show host and failed governor candidate.

Elsewhere in DuPage, Republican Rep. Christine Winger trailed Democratic challenger Diane Pappas by less than 200 votes with three precincts still out. And DuPage County Board member Tonia Khouri, an Aurora Republican who lost a 2016 congressional bid, was trailing Democrat Karina Villa, vice president of the West Chicago school board. Villa had 53 percent to 47 percent for Khouri, according to unofficial totals.

Appointed Republican Rep. Deanne Marie Mazzochi of Elmhurst, a lawyer and chairman of the College of DuPage board of trustees, led Democrat James "Jim" Caffrey, a former Clorox custom team manager from Elmhurst. The Associated Press called the race for Mazzochi.

-- In the north and northwest suburbs, Republican Rep. Tom Morrison of Palatine led by a percentage point over Democrat Maggie Trevor of Rolling Meadows with nearly all the precincts counted. Morrison faced criticism for submitting a letter of support for a Christian pastor who was convicted on charges he spanked children in Arizona.

Elsewhere, Republican Rep. Sheri Jesiel of Winthrop Harbor trailed by more than 1,000 votes against Joyce Mason, a Democratic school board member from Gurnee.

House Republican leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs said Tuesday's results showed a gain for Democrats. "We got hit pretty hard, and statewide it was really difficult for the Republicans," he said. "The governor underperformed in areas that were important to us."

Durkin also said antipathy toward Trump in the suburbs hurt his party, as evidenced by losses of Republican U.S. Reps. Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, even though the president helped Downstate Republicans.

"It may be a few days before this all shakes out, but our caucus is still going to be strongly aligned, and Democrats have a choice to work with us or not," Durkin added.

-- In other key collar county and Downstate races, Rep. Mark Batinick, a Plainfield Republican who faced a barrage of negative television ads, held a narrow lead against Democratic opponent Mica Freeman, also of Plainfield.

Appointed Republican Rep. Helene Miller Walsh of Mundelein, the wife of former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh, defeated Democrat Mary Edly-Allen, a bilingual education teacher from Libertyville.

Republican Rep. Jerry Lee Long of Streator was headed toward a loss to Democratic engineer Lance Yednock of Ottawa. The House GOP had cut ties with Long following what it said were complaints of abusive behavior involving staffers.

In a major showdown in deep southern Illinois, appointed incumbent Democratic Rep. Natalie Phelps Finnie of Elizabethtown conceded defeat to Republican Massac County State's Attorney Patrick Windhorst of Metropolis. Finnie was trying hang on to the Phelps family's long legacy of holding the House seat. She is the daughter of former state Rep. David Phelps, who later served in the U.S. House, and the cousin of former Rep. Brandon Phelps, who gave up the seat in 2017 after about 14 years and now works as a lobbyist.

Saying she had "perfect peace," Finnie said the results were "more about Trump than it is Republican and Democrat."

-- In the Illinois Senate, Republican Sen. Tom Rooney of Rolling Meadows conceded defeat to Democrat Ann Gillespie, a retired pharmacy mail order executive from Arlington Heights.

In key DuPage Senate races, Republican Sen. Chris Nybo of Elmhurst trailed by fewer than 500 votes in a rematch against Suzy Glowiak, a Western Springs trustee. Appointed Republican Sen. John Curran of Downers Grove held a small lead over Democratic challenger Bridget Fitzgerald, the Western Springs clerk who is a distant cousin of the Senate president. And Republican Sen. Michael Connelly of Lisle led by about a dozen votes against Democratic challenger Laura Ellman of Naperville, an official at Argonne National Laboratory.

Democratic Sen. Tom Cullerton of Villa Park won a rematch against Republican Seth Lewis, an insurance agent from Bartlett.

In the Quad Cities, Republican Sen. Neil Anderson of Andalusia held off Democratic challenger Gregg Johnson, a retired Illinois Department of Corrections supply supervisor from East Moline.

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