SEPTEMBER 26, 2025 THOUGHTS ON MONETARY POLICY DECISIONMAKING AND CHALLENGES AHEAD
The following information was released by the
Vice Chair for Supervision
At the
Good afternoon. Thank you for the invitation to speak to you. I am delighted to have the opportunity to address this distinguished group of macroeconomic forecasters. Today I will discuss how I approach monetary policy decisionmaking, and I will then describe some of the challenges we will likely face in the years ahead.1
Before turning to the main topic of my remarks, I would like to provide some context about my background and how that shapes my approach to my role as a policymaker. After serving for nearly seven years on the
As you know, the
Achieving both of these goals is challenging when they are in tension. Policy actions to tame inflation, like raising the target range for the federal funds rate, can have an adverse effect on employment. By contrast, policy actions aimed at supporting employment that is below its maximum level can potentially increase risks to price stability. These are just a few of the challenges we face as policymakers. With that background, I will share more on my approach to our monetary policy responsibilities and the use of our existing toolkit. I consider my approach in terms of flexibility in shifting the focus on policy objectives when needed and a limited footprint in financial markets.
A Flexible Approach to Policymaking
Pursuing the objectives of the dual mandate at the same time means that we generally seek to achieve the maximum level of employment that is consistent with price stability. But the monetary policy objectives are not always complementary. Because our dual mandate places equal weight on both maximum employment and price stability, when these objectives are in tension it is important not to favor one side of the mandate over the other. In that circumstance, we should be flexible and direct our focus to the side of the mandate that deviates the most from its goal or that shows the greater risk of persistently departing from it. Hesitating to address existing or emerging departures from the dual-mandate goals, due to self-limitations stemming from an unwillingness to depart from outdated past policy communication, increases the likelihood that policymakers will need to implement abrupt and large policy corrections.
As we all remember in 2021, supply and demand imbalances, amplified by extraordinary stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, led to a sharp rise in inflation over just a few months. By the second half of that year, amid growing inflationary pressures, it became clear that our monetary policy stance was too accommodative and that the
In my view, the accommodative forward guidance the Committee adopted in the September and the
Recognizing the substantial risk that unacceptably high inflation could persist, and once the conditions in the labor market were moving toward the
As I noted in recent remarks, we are now facing a very different economic environment.3 Over the past several months, I have been pointing to a shift in economic conditions and in the balance of risks to our employment and inflation goals, calling attention to signs of potential labor market fragility. And I have argued that increasing signs of weakening labor market conditions provide a basis for proactively supporting the employment side of our mandate.
Recent data show a materially more fragile labor market along with inflation that, excluding tariffs, has continued to hover not far above our target. Given this shift in labor market conditions, at last week's
Up until the July FOMC meeting, even with inflation within range of our target, the Committee has focused primarily on the inflation side of the dual mandate. Now that we have seen many months of deteriorating labor market conditions, it is time for the Committee to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility. In my view, the recent data, including the estimated payroll employment benchmark revisions, show that we are at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward.
I recognize and appreciate concerns that we have not yet perfectly achieved our inflation goal. But under a flexible approach to policymaking, it is appropriate to focus on the side of the mandate that is showing signs of deterioration or fragility even though inflation is above but within range of our target. This shift is appropriate now because forecasters widely expect inflation to significantly decline next year, and as further deterioration in labor market conditions would likely lead to more persistent damage to the employment side of the mandate, that would be difficult to address with our tools.
With tariff-related price increases likely being a one-time effect, my view is that inflation will return to 2 percent after these effects dissipate. Because changes in monetary policy take time to work their way through the economy, it is appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation readings and therefore remove some policy restraint to avoid weakening in the labor market, provided that long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored.
In addition, putting tariffs aside, the
In light of all these considerations, in my view, it was appropriate to begin the process of moving policy toward a more neutral stance at last week's
In the past, I have supported data dependence as an approach that incorporates incoming data into the decisions that lie immediately ahead and further into the future. Our experience during and following the pandemic highlights the difficulty in assessing the current state of the economy and predicting how it will evolve in the presence of major supply- and demand-side shocks, possible structural changes in the economy, and real-time data and measurement uncertainty. With unusually high uncertainty around the state of the economy and the economic outlook, and with significant risks to our employment and price stability goals, judging where the economy is headed in the future is much more challenging. Therefore, it made sense in the past to consider and be informed by the incoming data and its implications for the outlook in assessing the appropriate path for monetary policy.
But today we are facing different conditions. I am concerned that the labor market could enter into a precarious phase, and there is a risk that a shock could tip it into a sudden and significant deterioration. An inflexible and dogmatic view of data dependence gives an inherently backward-looking view of the economy and would guarantee that we remain behind the curve, requiring us to catch up in the future.
I think we should consider shifting our focus from overweighting the latest data points to a proactive forward-looking approach and making a forecast that reflects how the economy is likely to evolve going forward. Because policy actions take time to flow through to, or have their full effect on, the economy, labor markets, and inflation, it is important that we are making predictions about where the economy is headed and to act on those forecasts in real time. A forward-looking approach ensures that monetary policy can help support the economy. It also better positions us to avoid falling behind the curve and then having to implement abrupt and dramatic policy actions. In my view, it is more effective to act promptly and decisively in the face of fragility than to be forced to dramatically adjust policy after damage has occurred.
A Limited Footprint the Fed's Balance Sheet
I will turn now to discuss my views about how we use our balance sheet. As the runoff in our securities portfolio proceeds following extensive asset purchases during the pandemic, there are several issues with important implications regarding the size and the composition of the Fed's balance sheet in the longer run.
Over the longer run, my preference is to maintain the smallest balance sheet possible with reserve balances at a level closer to scarce than ample. First, a smaller balance sheet would minimize the Fed's footprint in money markets and in
Lower levels of reserves may also incentivize banks to engage in more active management of their liquidity positions and liquidity risks. Finally, a lower terminal level of reserves and a smaller balance sheet as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would provide the
In terms of the composition of the Fed's securities holdings in the longer run, I strongly support having a System Open Market Account portfolio that consists only of
I also look forward to revisiting the Committee's consideration of potential sales of our agency MBS holdings. Simply relying on MBS runoff will not allow returning to a
The longer-run maturity structure of the
For example, the
The Nature and Use of Emergency Tools
I will turn now to the role for and the availability of policy tools like lending programs and facilities. During periods of extreme financial system stress, the
Despite their demonstrated effectiveness during times of financial market dysfunction, my view is that emergency lending facilities should be reserved for the single-purpose use in emergency circumstances and should not be institutionalized. In other words, they should not be converted to permanent standing facilities. Instead, they should be activated for only the most exceptionally stressed circumstances. Institutionalizing an activity that was created to temporarily respond to emergency conditions essentially normalizes an extreme emergency response to market illiquidity.
I am concerned that converting emergency facilities created in the depths of a crisis into permanent standing facilities would potentially increase the Fed's footprint in financial markets and have adverse implications, such as distorting private-sector market dynamics and market pricing during normal, noncrisis times. My preference is to rely on these types of facilities only on an emergency basis to address exceptional circumstances. This approach ensures that potential counterparties transact in the private market during times of normal or even mildly stressed market conditions.
A better option would be to announce the short duration of a facility at the time it is created and be clear that it will only exist while the conditions prevail. During the pandemic, we demonstrated the ability to bring these facilities online quickly, so communication reiterating that we stand ready to do it again, even if only on a "just in time" basis, may, on its own, have a beneficial effect on market dynamics.
I will conclude this part of my discussion by highlighting a current regulatory proposal that would return the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) to a backstop rather than a binding constraint for bank-affiliated broker-dealers.
Treasury Market Intermediation
Even though the
In late June, the Board, along with the
In addition, once the GENIUS Act is implemented, stablecoin issuers are required to hold reserves equivalent to the value of stablecoin issuance, which can include
Reforming the eSLR would also directly address some of the problems that a permanent
Although at the
In its current form, the SRF has a minimum bid rate set equal to the discount window primary credit rate, which is also equal to the top of the target range for the federal funds rate. As a result, the SRF, by design, is not fully positioned to serve only as a backstop during times of market dysfunction and stress. My preference would be for a minimum bid rate higher than the top of the federal funds rate target range in order to emphasize that the SRF's purpose is to serve only as a backstop. A rate above the top of the target range would be more likely to discourage use of the facility outside of exceptional market-wide episodes of acute stress. It seems likely that a rate that's not set at a sufficiently high level might still be considered an option for primary dealers experiencing idiosyncratic pressures outside of market-wide disruption. In my view, providing an outlet for dealers that experience these kinds of pressures should not be the intended purpose of this facility.
While creating a "release valve" to provide greater market liquidity has been a goal of the SRF, I remain concerned that one of its unintended consequences is to distort market signals by artificially affecting repo rate dynamics. It is not the Fed's role to replace or arbitrage private-market activities.
Having a minimum bid rate on the SRF that is not sufficiently elevated relative to market rates risks suppressing or distorting valuable signals stemming from overnight money markets. While balance sheet runoff is entering a new phase, it is especially important to be able to observe underlying reserve and money market conditions.
Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead
Throughout my tenure at the
I will turn now to briefly discuss some challenges for monetary policy in the years ahead, including the potential for supply shocks, the transmission of monetary policy to long-term interest rates, the housing market, the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom, and the ways that I see some of these factors affecting the neutral rate of interest.
Supply Shocks
Supply shocks, which move economic activity and inflation in opposite directions, can be challenging for monetary policy to address because they can put the pursuit of the dual-mandate goals in conflict.5 The development of new technologies that raise productivity is an example of a positive supply shock that increases potential output, while supply chain disruptions are an example of a negative supply shock. To properly address these shocks, for situations in which the policy objectives are in tension, as implied by the
Tariffs can be seen as a negative shock to the supply of imported goods but can also be viewed as a surcharge on demand for imported goods. Like any surcharge on sales, the effects on inflation are likely short lived, as reduced demand increases slack in the economy and restrains any follow-on price increases, assuming that inflation expectations remain anchored. Therefore, it makes sense for monetary policy to mostly look through the one-off effect on prices and put more weight on the likely more persistent effects on demand and employment.
A step-down in population growth is also a negative supply shock, as it slows the increase in the labor force and output. This development would also represent a negative shock to demand, with the two effects roughly balancing out over time. However, the source of the shock, whether due to lower immigration or the aging of the population, seems relevant. While aging of the population is a gradual process that is less likely to generate sudden deviations in either of our mandates, a shock to immigration can have sharper effects on demand in the near term, as supply is likely to adjust more slowlyfor example, housing.
Term Premiums
A second challenge for monetary policy would be a significant rise in longer-term interest rates driven by higher term premiums, which could offset a reduction in the expectations component stemming from monetary policy easing. This scenario would weaken the transmission of changes in the policy rate to economic activity, as investment decisions of households and businesses are dependent on longer-term rates, such as mortgage rates and corporate bond yields. Although term premiums increased when the
A further rise in the term premium could reflect higher compensation for expected inflation and increased risks that monetary policy may need to address future shocks to real activity or inflation. Some of the factors that could lead to higher term premiums would be concerns about fiscal sustainability and the
Housing Market
A third challenge for monetary policy would be a sharp housing market correction. Although supply factors have been weighing down on housing activity for a while, demand factors appear to have recently become the dominant force. Elevated mortgage rates may be exerting a more persistent drag, as income growth expectations have declined while house prices remain high relative to rents. Given very low housing affordability, existing home sales have remained depressed despite higher inventories of homes for sale. I am concerned that declines in house prices could accelerate, posing downside risks to housing wealth and inflation in the years ahead.
Artificial Intelligence
Finally, the surge in AI investment could also be challenging for monetary policy. Investment in new technologies is likely to raise productivity and lower inflation in the medium term. Although the additional investment also boosts demand, the effects on productivity and supply are likely to occur relatively quickly, and the economy is less likely to tighten appreciably in the near term. In this case, monetary policy should refrain from restraining aggregate demand, as any deviation from maximum employment is likely to be temporary.
There is a risk that expectations of returns on these high-tech investments may be too optimistic and raise financial stability concerns. Although tech companies can largely self finance these investments, or easily access bond and equity markets, if expectations of future revenues do not materialize, we may see a large correction in equity markets and a slump in investment spending due to over-capacity. Such a correction would lead to a contraction in aggregate demand through lower household wealth and lower expected profits.
Neutral Rate of Interest
Some of the factors discussed here may be key influences on the neutral interest rate, or r*. The two factors that I am more attentive to are slower population growth and fiscal sustainability risks. Although these factors have opposite effects on the balance between savings and investment and r*, I see slower population growth and the aging of the population as more prominent factors in pulling down the neutral interest rate. If fiscal sustainability concerns are not addressed in the years ahead, by stabilizing or reversing the upward trajectory of the federal debt-to-GDP ratio, I am afraid that r* and interest rates could rise and crowd out private investment.
Closing Thoughts
Before we move on to the discussion, I'd like to touch on the supervision and regulatory work under way. We have made a lot of progress in the past few months since I became the Vice Chair for Supervision. And
In addition to working to implement the Fed's responsibilities under this law, we are making significant progress on a number of priorities in supervision and regulation. Early in my tenure, I described my approach to take a fresh look at our supervision and regulatory framework.7
We have made progress on a wide range of priorities in these past few months, including
proposed changes to rationalize the large financial institution ratings framework that applies to the largest banking institutions to emphasize material financial risk
proposed revisions to the eSLR to return it to its traditional role as a capital backstop and limit the risk of further disruptions to
removed reputational risk from the examination toolkit, instead prioritizing material financial risk
published a request for information on payments fraud activities to develop a plan for a better and more coordinated response (and, here, I would note that the comment period just closed on
proposed improvements to reduce the volatility of supervisory stress tests by imposing reasonable and transparent parameters on the tests
reviewing regulatory reporting requirements to improve the validation of information collected every time a form is renewed, rather than rubber-stamping the renewal of collections that may no longer be effective or useful
While we are making progress in a number of areas, there is much left to do. Some of this work will include improving the mergers and acquisitions process; reviewing the appropriateness of capital requirements for all banks, including revising the community bank leverage ratio and approaches for mutual banks; and addressing payments and check fraud. We are continuing to enhance examiner training and development, and we will continue to prioritize economic growth and safety and soundness in the bank regulatory framework.
Thank you again for the invitation to join you today. It's a pleasure to be here, and I look forward to our discussion.
1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the
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4. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for
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