Say hello to 2020: Statistics from past decade give insights

Jan. 5--LIMA -- Now that the clocks have shifted, it's time to say hello to the 2020s, a new decade with new challenges and new opportunities.

But before 2010 can be retired, there's one last task worth doing. In order to get a better idea of where the region is headed, let's review the local numbers on one of the most controversial decades in recent memory. An analysis of federal and local data helps show where the region's heading over the next decade.

Demographics and age

If there's one factor that will have major influences across the region in the next decade, it has to be age.

In the last decade, the United States aged up across the board, and those effects will reverberate even stronger in the next decade, especially in the Lima area, as seniors continue to make up larger percentages of the total population.

A Flourish data visualisation

Here are some likely trends:

--The baby boomers began to retire en masse in the 2010s, and by the end of the 2020s, the change-up will have wide-ranging consequences.

--Many businesses -- especially those already desperate for workers -- will encourage their baby boomers to prolong retirement. Some will be pushed into part-time work to forgo a full retirement, and the younger generations will most likely feel a little raw about the whole situation as they've sought a stronger voice for years now.

--Relatedly, many community leaders may retire after decades of service. For example, Lima Mayor David Berger will have held his position for the last 32 years by 2021, and if 2017 was any indicator, the next Lima mayoral race will likely be a hotly contested one.

--Age will also have some major influences on housing, health care and transportation infrastructure. More older people means more pressure on the services that they use, and local hospitals have already seen increased needs among the senior population.

--The lack of public transportation, especially in rural areas, will cause plenty of headaches for those who may not have reliable transportation as they age. In fact, any sort of organization dealing largely with the senior population will see expanded need across the board.

--This also means there will be many more older women in the post-70 age groups throughout the county. Longevity drops for men after hitting that age. Census numbers for the county show that women outnumber men after hitting 80 by a 2-to-1 ratio.

Home ownership

--More older people also means the younger generation will start seeing more houses on the market, as deaths due to old age free up property. That shift, however, could play out a few ways. Younger buyers could flatly refuse to buy such houses. Vacancy rates are already creeping up in Allen County. The latest numbers estimate more than 10% of residential houses are vacant in the county -- up from 6% in 2010 -- and more people are foregoing home purchases in order to rent, exemplified by increasing rental rates.

--At the same time, most of those looking for homes are finding them outside of City of Lima's limits, moving into smaller yet vibrant communities, such as Bluffton, Wapakoneta and other rural areas. In fact, there's been a notable shifting of the population away from Lima proper, as more and more settle in outlying towns, neighboring townships and some rural areas.

--On the other side of the age scale, Lima has been able to attract a number of 20-year-olds looking to fill the gap created by an increased manufacturing workforce, but there could be some issues when it comes to retaining them in the area. Of note is the gender imbalance among 20-year-olds. Census numbers estimate that 20-year-old males outnumber 20-year-old females at a 123-to-100 ratio in Allen County, meaning 1,500 young men will most likely be looking elsewhere when they wish to start a family.

Economics

The year 2010 limped onto the scene after suffering one of the largest setbacks in economic growth in American history. The Great Recession shrunk both private and public organizations through mass layoffs and upset the plans of millions of Americans due to a major implosion of the housing bubble.

Much of the past decade has been the story of Americans working through the damages. On the federal level, a $831 billion stimulus plan was approved to encourage job growth and investment, but overall growth has been notoriously sluggish throughout the decade, as the GDP growth rate failed to jump any higher than 2.9% back in 2015 and 2018. Today, all those baby steps have created better economic times for many, especially due to the ever-tightening job market.

Here are some trends worthy of note.

--Locally, the last decade (measured from 2000 to 2018, as latest numbers haven't been released) added $3,949 to Allen County's per capita income, bringing it up to $25,662 by 2018. In comparison, Ohio's per capita income in 2018 was tallied at $30,304. Further number crunching shows that Allen County's income growth was slightly lower than Ohio's. Per capita income is measured as total payroll averaged by population.

--That growth, however, did allow roughly 2,000 people to leave poverty status when comparing the beginning and end of the decade.

A Flourish data visualisation

--Looking past the last decade, the other major economic trend affecting the region comes from the region's relationship with the manufacturing sector. In 1970, just less than a third of total Allen County jobs were located in manufacturing. Today, that percentage has fallen to 21.5% -- a number comparable to other Rust Belt counties, such as Richland County -- due to international market pressures and increasing automation.

Other counties in the region, such as Auglaize and Mercer counties, have been able to keep the number of manufacturing jobs as a higher percentage of their total economies. Interestingly, out of the counties neighboring Allen County, those two have seen some of the most success in terms of retaining their populations.

A Flourish data visualisation

--As for the economy of the future, economic trends of the past aren't super helpful. While manufacturing has seen a resurgence in recent years, the sector -- at least nationally -- has exhibited some signs of a slowdown in the latter half of 2019. Even so, it's very safe to say the region will most likely remain a manufacturing powerhouse. All those UNOH, Apollo and Vantage students earning technical manufacturing skills will find a healthy job market paying well in the local area. Per capita income will likely continue to rise as well, but at what rate remains to be seen.

--Looking at the economy through the number of local businesses shows a slightly different portrait. The number of businesses has continued to shrink throughout the last decade, as larger businesses make up a larger percentage of the total.

--Relatedly, the number of businesses with fewer than five employees has been trending downward since 1990. If that continues, dollars will increasingly be concentrated with larger businesses. Again, that trend could be related to the region's aging demographic since younger people are usually the ones taking the risk with a new business.

A Flourish data visualisation

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