Reports Outline Risk Management Study Results from Catholic University of Louvain (UCLouvain) (An Actuarial Approach for Modeling Pandemic Risk): Insurance – Risk Management

2021 DEC 08 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at NewsRx COVID-19 Daily -- Fresh data on insurance are presented in a new report. According to news originating from Catholic University of Louvain (UCLouvain) by NewsRx correspondents, research stated, “In this article, a model for pandemic risk and two stochastic extensions is proposed.”

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from Catholic University of Louvain (UCLouvain): “It is designed for actuarial valuation of insurance plans providing healthcare and death benefits. The core of our approach relies on a deterministic model that is an efficient alternative to the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) method. This model explains the evolution of the first waves of COVID-19 in Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain. Furthermore, it is analytically tractable for fair pure premium calculation. In a first extension, we replace the time by a gamma stochastic clock. This approach randomizes the timing of the epidemic peak.”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “A second extension consists of adding a Brownian noise and a jump process to explain the erratic evolution of the population of confirmed cases. The jump component allows for local resurgences of the epidemic.”

For more information on this research see: An Actuarial Approach for Modeling Pandemic Risk. Risks, 2021,9(3):3. (Risks - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/risks). The publisher for Risks is MDPI AG.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9010003.

Our news editors report that more information may be obtained by contacting Donatien Hainaut, LIDAM Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain (UCLouvain), 5032 Isnes, Belgium.

(Our reports deliver fact-based news of research and discoveries from around the world.)