Q3 2023 Earnings Call Presentation
Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation
Forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information. This presentation also contains non- GAAP measures that are denoted with an asterisk. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures within our most recent earnings release, investor supplement or on our website, www.allstateinvestors.com, under the "Financials" link.
Additional information on factors that could cause results to differ materially from this presentation is available in the 2022 Form 10-K, Form 10-Q for
Allstate's Strategy To Create Shareholder Value
Increase Personal
Property-Liability Market Share
Leveraging Allstate brand,
customer base and capabilities
Expand Protection
Services
Third quarter 2023 highlights
- Progress on auto insurance profit improvement plan
- Pursuing divestiture of Health and Benefits businesses
- Advancing Transformative Growth initiative
- Expanding Allstate Protection Plans
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PAGE 2 |
Allstate Remains Focused on Improving Profitability
Revenues increased 9.8%, or
Liability earned premiums from 2022 and 2023 rate increases
Three months ended |
Nine months ended |
||||||||||
|
|
||||||||||
($ in millions, except per share data and ratios) |
2023 |
2022 |
Change |
2023 |
2022 |
Change |
|||||
Total revenues |
|
|
9.8% |
|
|
11.9% |
|||||
Property-Liability insurance premiums |
12,270 |
11,157 |
10.0% |
35,826 |
32,529 |
10.1% |
|||||
Accident and health insurance premiums and contract charges |
463 |
463 |
0.0% |
1,379 |
1,396 |
(1.2)% |
|||||
Net investment income |
689 |
690 |
(0.1)% |
1,874 |
1,846 |
1.5% |
|||||
Net gains (losses) on investments and derivatives |
(86) |
(167) |
(48.5)% |
(223) |
(1,167) |
(80.9)% |
|||||
Income applicable to common shareholders: |
Extended duration of fixed |
||||||||||
Net income (loss) |
(41) |
(685) |
(94.0)% |
(1,776) |
(1,091) |
62.8% |
|||||
income portfolio |
|||||||||||
Adjusted net income (loss)* |
214 |
(411) |
NM |
(1,290) |
112 |
NM |
|||||
Per diluted common share(1) |
|||||||||||
Net income (loss) |
(0.16) |
(2.55) |
(93.7)% |
(6.76) |
(3.99) |
69.4% |
|||||
Adjusted net income (loss)* |
0.81 |
(1.53) |
NM |
(4.91) |
0.40 |
NM |
|||||
Retuon Allstate common shareholders' equity (trailing twelve months) |
|||||||||||
Net income (loss) applicable to common shareholders |
(14.7)% |
(1.5)% (13.2) pts |
|||||||||
Adjusted net income (loss)* |
Reflects improved underwriting performance |
(9.7)% |
4.4% (14.1) pts |
||||||||
NM = Not meaningful
- In periods where a net loss or adjusted net loss is reported, weighted average shares for basic earnings per share is used for calculating diluted earnings per share because all dilutive potential common shares are anti-dilutive and are therefore excluded from the calculation.
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PAGE 3 |
Executing Comprehensive Approach to Restore Auto Margins
Auto insurance profit improvement will be driven by: |
Progress: |
|||
• Allstate brand implemented rate increases of 16.9% in 2022 |
||||
• |
Pursuing rate actions |
and 9.5% through first nine months of 2023 |
||
Rate |
• National General implemented rate increases of 10.0% in |
|||
Increases |
• |
Pricing expertise and sophistication |
||
2022 and 8.8% through first nine months of 2023 |
||||
• Continuing to pursue rate increases |
||||
• Property-Liability underwriting expense ratio decreased |
||||
1.4 points compared to the prior year quarter |
||||
• Improving efficiencies and ongoing outsourcing initiatives |
||||
Expense |
• |
Reducing expenses as part of |
resulted in |
|
Transformative Growth |
||||
Reductions |
• Temporarily reduced advertising spend to reduce new |
|||
business volume |
||||
•Future cost reductions from digitization, sourcing and |
||||
distribution will continue to favorably impact cost structure |
||||
•Restricting new business in profit-challenged segments and |
||||
Underwriting |
• |
Implemented stricter auto new |
locations |
|
business underwriting requirements |
||||
Actions |
• Selectively removing restrictions in states and segments that |
|||
are achieving target margins |
||||
• Modifying claims processes |
||||
Claims |
• |
Enhancing claims practices to |
• Accelerating resolution of bodily injury claims |
|
Excellence |
manage loss costs |
|||
• Increasing in-person inspections
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PAGE 4 |
Allstate's Industry-Leading Returns in
Allstate's capabilities and business model have resulted in an auto insurance combined ratio of ~96.5 over the last 10 years (2013-2022)(1)
- Generated average underwriting income of
~$800 million annually from 2013-2022(1) - Allstate auto insurance combined ratio approximately 5.5 points better than industry average, or
$1.3 billion of incremental profit annually - Competitors Progressive, GEICO and Travelers are the only other top ten carriers to generate underwriting profit over this period(1)
Current competitive environment supports execution of profit improvement plan
- Auto claim severities have increased significantly for major competitors and the overall industry
- Allstate and the industry have significantly raised auto insurance rates since 2019
- Expense reductions occurring broadly across the industry, including lower advertising
- The impact of actions on policies in force dependent on degree of individual company profit and growth strategies
- Allstate combined ratio and underwriting income represents Allstate Protection auto GAAP results for 2013-2022 with impact of pension restatements excluded prior to 2016. Industry information represents
U.S. statutory results perS&P Global Market Intelligence from 2013-2022
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PAGE 5 |
Pursuing Health and Benefits Divestiture
Rationale
- Combining Allstate and National General businesses was integral to National General acquisition plan. Successful integration positions business for additional growth
- Divestiture is being pursued since substantial value can be realized when aligned with a broader set of complementary businesses and product offerings
Health and Benefits Overview
Allstate Health and Benefits operates three successful businesses protecting people from financial uncertainty due to illness, injury, or loss of life:-
- Preeminentvoluntary benefits provider with a comprehensive product offering with annualized premiums and contract charges of
$1.0 billion and $300+ million of new sales - Group health provider in the small case size market with $700+ million of premiums and fee revenue and $400+ million in new sales
- Individual health products with broad distribution of both underwritten and third-party products
- Preeminentvoluntary benefits provider with a comprehensive product offering with annualized premiums and contract charges of
- Consistent profitable growth with revenues(1) of
$2.3 billion and adjusted net income (2) of$240 million for the trailing twelve months
Financial Profile |
Competitive Landscape |
||||||||||||||
Revenues(1) |
Adjusted Net Income(2) |
Employer |
Group |
Individual |
|||||||||||
|
|
||||||||||||||
Voluntary Benefits |
Health |
Health |
|||||||||||||
79 |
|||||||||||||||
34 |
Primary Competitors |
||||||||||||||
Employer Voluntary Benefits |
|||||||||||||||
431 |
|
||||||||||||||
• |
MetLife |
• |
|
• |
|
||||||||||
1,009(3) |
|
100 |
|||||||||||||
• |
Aflac |
• |
Elevance |
• |
Humana |
||||||||||
(3) |
Fees and Other Revenue |
||||||||||||||
378 |
Net Investment Income |
106 |
• |
Voya |
• |
|
• |
Elevance |
|||||||
428(3) |
|||||||||||||||
4.3% of Total Corporate |
Other Market Participants |
||||||||||||||
Revenues |
|||||||||||||||
Competitive |
• |
|
• |
|
• |
Integrity Marketing |
|||||||||
Landscape |
|||||||||||||||
• |
Sun Life |
organizations |
• |
Mutual of |
|||||||||||
• |
|||||||||||||||
• 4.3 million policies in force as of |
• |
|
|||||||||||||
- Employer Voluntary Benefits: 3.7 million
Group Health : 134 thousandIndividual Health : 412 thousand
- Revenues exclude the impact of net gains and losses on investments and derivatives
(2) |
2022 periods have been recast to reflect the impact of the adoption of the FASB guidance revising the accounting for certain long-duration insurance contracts |
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PAGE 6 |
(3) |
Reflects premiums and contract charges |
Transformative Growth Implementation Progressing
Multi-year initiative to build a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution
- Improve customer value with affordable, simple and connected protection
- Expand customer access through exclusive agents, independent agents and direct channel
• |
Increase sophistication and investment in customer acquisition |
Relaunched Allstate |
• |
Deploy new technology ecosystems |
mobile app with increased |
connectivity |
||
• |
Enhance organizational capabilities |
|
Three pre-packaged
affordable, simple options
Phase 1: |
Phase 2: |
Conceptual |
Enhance |
design |
existing model |
Phase 3: |
Phase 4: |
Build new |
Scale new |
model |
model |
Phase 5:
Retire legacy technology
|
PAGE 7 |
Property-Liability Earned Premium Increases and Expense Reductions Improve Margins
Earned premium increase driven by higher auto and homeowners rates, partially offset by a decline in policies in force
Unfavorable prior year reserve reestimates of
Property-Liability statistics
Property-Liability combined ratio components
($ in millions)
Premiums Earned
Policies in Force (in thousands) Catastrophe Losses Underwriting Income (Loss)
(% to premiums earned) Loss Ratio
Three months ended |
Nine months ended |
|||
|
|
|||
2023 |
Var to PY |
2023 |
Var to PY |
|
(%/$) |
(%/$) |
|||
12,270 |
10.0% |
35,826 |
10.1% |
|
37,853 |
(2.0)% |
- |
- |
|
1,181 |
418 |
5,568 |
3,235 |
|
(414) |
878 |
(3,509) |
(1,633) |
|
82.2 (6.8) pts |
88.9 |
6.3 pts |
93.2 92.0
8.7 7.3
-0.8
85.3 85.0
95.9
87.6 8.3
0.1 -0.47.9
0.1 86.2
79.4 0.2
117.6 |
|||
106.6 |
108.6 |
||
22.6 |
103.4 |
||
7.1 |
14.5 |
||
0.5 |
|||
9.6 |
|||
3.9 |
|||
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
0.3 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
|
0.6 |
|||
0.8 95.1 |
93.3 |
92.9 |
91.9 |
Expense Ratio
Combined Ratio Catastrophe Loss Ratio
Underlying Combined Ratio*
21.2 |
(1.4) pts |
20.9 |
(2.3) pts |
103.4 |
(8.2) pts |
109.8 |
4.0 pts |
9.6 |
2.8 pts |
15.5 |
8.3 pts |
91.9 |
(4.5) pts |
92.7 |
(0.9) pts |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 |
||
(1) |
(1) |
||||||
Underlying combined ratio* PYRR |
|
||||||
Underlying combined ratio* improvement versus 2022 reflects
higher average premium and lower expenses
(1) Reflects combined ratio impact of non-catastrophe prior year reserve reestimates (PYRR) and amortization of purchased intangibles (
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PAGE 8 |
Auto Insurance Premium Growth Outpacing Underlying Costs
Underlying combined ratio sequentially improving, driven by higher average premium and expense efficiencies along with lower estimated Allstate brand weighted average severity in the third quarter
3 large states generating underwriting losses added approximately 5 points to the 2023 YTD underlying combined ratio
Allstate Protection auto underlying combined ratio* - 2022 quarterly results(1) versus 2023 results(2) adjusted for current year severity
103.2 |
104.2 |
103.2 |
103.9 |
101.3 |
|
101.7 |
100.5 |
||||
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
Underlying Combined |
98.8 |
102.1 |
104.0 |
109.2 |
102.6 |
102.2 |
98.8 |
Ratio* - as reported |
|||||||
2022 Underlying combined ratio* (at full year average severity level) (1) 2023 Underlying combined ratio* (at Q3 average severity level)(2)
Allstate brand auto countrywide premium distribution by underlying combined ratio* segment(3)
Q3 YTD 2023 underlying combined ratio*(3) |
|||||||||||||
CA, NY, NJ |
119.6 |
||||||||||||
Total x CA, NY, NJ |
97.2 |
||||||||||||
100% |
|||||||||||||
12% |
12% |
||||||||||||
90% |
|||||||||||||
35% |
>100 |
||||||||||||
80% |
41% |
||||||||||||
70% |
|||||||||||||
47% |
71% |
||||||||||||
60% |
|||||||||||||
50% |
88% |
100% |
28% |
96-100 |
|||||||||
40% |
|||||||||||||
65% |
|||||||||||||
30% |
|||||||||||||
41% |
|||||||||||||
20% |
21% |
31% |
<96 |
||||||||||
10% |
|||||||||||||
8% |
|||||||||||||
0% |
|||||||||||||
2015-2016 |
2017-2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 YTD |
||||||||
- Adjusts 2022 quarterly underlying combined ratios* to reflect full year average current report year ultimate severities
- Adjusts 2023 quarterly underlying combined ratios* to reflect Q3 average current report year ultimate severities
(3) Reflects 50 U.S. states plus |
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PAGE 9 |
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