OPINION: Rauner has his finger to the political winds on abortion
"I dislike the
Rauner, who was elected governor that fall, is now under fire for doing a complete 180 on this point. He announced recently that he now opposes a legislative effort to reverse the very law he once pledged to reverse.
The explanation, offered by his press office in the form of a quote from a Rauner supporter: The governor "start(ed) listening to the people of
Tut-tuts and ho-hums duly noted. A politician flipping on an issue! Outrageous! Routine! Outrageously routine!
But just for fun, let's unpack this particular inversion.
Rauner and his surrogates regularly insisted during the 2014 primary and during his general election race against incumbent Democrat
I didn't vote for him, but I believed him. And I still believe him. Nothing I've seen from Rauner in his 27 months in office suggests that he's a closet social conservative or that he's particularly animated either way by the "values" issues that tend to excite the
He's worried about public-sector unions, not same-sex unions. The choice that concerns him is the choice he wants municipalities to have to opt out of prevailing wage laws, not the choice to terminate a pregnancy.
Still, his views on abortion weren't liberally orthodox enough to get the endorsement of Personal PAC -- he answered an unfriendly "No" on 4 of the 30 yes-no questions on the group's questionnaire, notably indicating he would not support the repeal of a state law that mandates parental involvement in a minor's decision to obtain an abortion.
So why did he bother to fill out the group's form, laying out for posterity stark and generally positive views on abortion rights that he might someday want to walk back?
Well, it may have been the warning next to the asterisk on the last page: "Failure to return this completed questionnaire will result in our assuming your opposition to ALL our positions on reproductive matters."
Personal PAC is not kidding about this. Candidates who blow them off for any reason are likely to find themselves clobbered by attack mailers portraying them as opponents of abortion even in cases of rape and incest; extremists who would like to see women who seek abortions thrown in jail and to severely limit access to contraception.
I've previously criticized the group for this tactic and renew my objection. It's dishonest and unfair.
But whether Rauner feared its members or not, placating Personal PAC was part of his strategy to win in a Democratic state by running as a non-scary Republican. He even doubled-down in the optional "additional comments" section, the space in which he offered the quote above in support of
So why the change in 2017, just as Rauner is ramping up to run for re-election against whoever emerges from an already-crowded Democratic primary field? Surely not because he's been "listening to the people of
Polls consistently show
I could find no statewide polling on that particular issue, but an
Rauner has disappointed many of the moderate
His flip is a hedge against a flop.
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