Ohio in 2020: Red or blue?

Sep. 20--LIMA -- In the midst of a worldwide pandemic, a country that finds itself divided politically to a degree not seen since the Civil War more than 170 years ago will undergo the quadrennial process of electing a president.

With Barack Obama the exception in 2008 and 2012, this year's presidential election -- like most before it -- will pit two old, white men against each other in the two mainstream parties.

The winner this year will be the oldest ever to hold the office. He could also be the first to be elected after having been impeached. The other major party candidate has a running mate who would be the first Black woman to hold the office of vice president.

Trump vs. Biden

Republican Donald Trump, 73, would be the oldest president ever if he wins a second term. He defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election by claiming 304 votes in the Electoral College, despite being out-polled by Clinton by some 3 million ballots nationwide in the popular vote.

His four years in office have been memorable, marked by attempts to remove him from office. Allegations that Trump solicited and received outside help from Russia during the 2016 election resulted in his impeachment by the U.S. House of Representatives in December of last year for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. He joined Andrew Johnson (Abraham Lincoln's successor) and Bill Clinton as the only presidents to be impeached. None were removed from office.

Democrat Joe Biden turns 78 three weeks after the election. He, like Trump, would be the oldest president in history at his inauguration. Before serving as Obama's vice president from 2009-2017, Biden was a senator from Delaware from 1973-2009. California Sen. Kamala Harris is his running mate.

As Ohio goes...

There is a longstanding adage in national politics that says "as Ohio goes, so goes the nation," a reference to the Buckeye State's legacy as a bellwether in presidential elections.

Trump won Ohio in 2016 with 51.7% of the popular vote to 43.6% for Hillary Clinton. It was the first time in eight years Ohio voters had sided with a Republican.

Obama won Ohio in both 2012 and 2008 by capturing more than 50% of the state vote against Republicans Mitt Romney and John McCain, respectively. George W. Bush claimed a 2% margin over John Kerry in the 2004 Buckeye State balloting and defeated Al Gore by 3.5% in 2000.

In 1996, Democrat Bill Clinton outpaced Republican Bob Dole by a margin of 47% to 41%. Third-party candidate Ross Perot captured more than 10% of Ohio's vote that year.

Ohio a long shot for Biden?

Dr. Rob Alexander, professor of political science at Ohio Northern University and the director of ONU's Institute for Civics and Public Policy, did not offer a prediction on this year's election, but he did offer some insight about the political leanings of the Buckeye State and its important 18 electoral votes.

"If Biden wins Ohio, it's over, while Trump could win Ohio and still lose the election," said Alexander. "Right now, however, I think Ohio is a long shot for Biden."

But how did Ohio become the Red State it's seen as today?

"Some of it is gerrymandering. Republicans have held many of these seats for a lot of years" and continue to ensure legislative districts are drawn to their advantage, Alexander said. "Another factor is economic concerns that arise in an area that's been hit hard in the manufacturing sector."

Some of the change in Ohio's political landscape, Alexander noted, may also be tied to the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court ruling that legalized abortion. Many Catholics who traditionally had voted Democrat suddenly found it difficult to find pro-life candidates.

"No doubt there are a lot of single-issue voters out there who are going to cast their ballots for Trump solely on the abortion issue," Alexander said.

Biden, a practicing Catholic, and his running mate are publicly pro-choice. A Wall Street Journal editorial opined that Biden would be the most pro-abortion president in history.

Trump has repeatedly referred to himself as prolLife and has appointed two justices to the U.S. Supreme Court widely seen as supportive of that view.

A 2019 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll showed a strong majority (almost 75 percent) of Americans want to keep Roe v. Wade as established law, but an almost equally strong majority (61 percent) want to see further restrictions on abortion rights.

Enthusiasm abounds

Despite Biden's current lead in most major polls, Alexander said that when asked who they "think" will win this year's election, "most people will say Trump."

That's especially true in Northwest and West Central Ohio, where blue Trump flags, banners and yard signs are seemingly everywhere.

"You didn't see that during the Romney or McCain campaigns," Alexander said. "People are showing their pride. A vote for Trump is seen by a lot of people as tied to being an American. There's definitely a piece of that going on."

Cheney, a longtime party chairman and political observer, said Allen County is solidly behind Trump.

"I have never witnessed this kind of enthusiasm for a candidate. It's fantastic," said the GOP chair. "I think people understand the gains that have been made in the economy, pre-COVID. The number of jobs created was second to none we've ever witnessed. Also, people are concerned about their freedoms and their rights. That's what's driving the enthusiasm."

Jeff Rex, chairman of the Allen County Democrats, is also seeing a surge in the number of county residents who are stepping forward to say "enough is enough."

"There has been an overwhelming number of requests to be a part of what is going on," Rex said. "We've put out about 500 Biden/Harris signs, which is twice the number of signs we put out at this point in previous years. The enthusiasm is tenfold over what it was four years ago. I'm getting eight to 10 phone calls a day and that many more emails from people requesting signs or just wanting to help.

"And it's not just Democrats. I'm hearing from independents, too, and some Republicans who are saying, 'I tried this experiment of voting for a non-politician, and I can't do it again.' The reality is that this year people are not afraid to say, 'I'm voting for Biden.'"

Tony Wobler, Putnam County Democratic Party chairman, has a view of the sitting president few can share.

"I'm a Gold Star father. My son was killed fighting for our freedom, and to hear Donald Trump call people in the military 'losers and suckers' went through me like a knife. I never thought we'd have a president like that," Wobler said earlier this week.

He said the Biden campaign is generating significantly more interest in the county than Clinton did four years earlier.

"In the last (election) cycle there were few people willing to stick their necks out for fear of being ridiculed by Republicans," Wobler said. "Now we're seeing large groups of people who are willing to look past the Right to Life issue and to look at the lies and distortion" being advanced by Trump.

"The biggest thing in this election is moral values -- what are we going to teach our children? I've never seen anything like this before. Everything we've stood against in our lifetime, (Trump) is for."

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