Nationwide flood models poorly capture risks to households and properties: University of California – Irvine
2024 AUG 06 (NewsRx) -- By a
In a paper published recently in the
“In our analysis of
“In addition, these differences between models imply a disparity in exposure inequality across social groups, including Black, white and disadvantaged sectors of society,” he said. “Exposure hot spots and social inequalities are key factors that inform urban flood risk planning, and overreliance on this data could lead to maladaptation of protective measures.”
Sanders and colleagues at UC Irvine and the
“Comparing exposure assessments with nationwide data models versus PRIMo-Drain, we found that city-by-city estimates differed by a factor of 10,” Sanders said. “Additionally, we found that there is only a 1-in-4 chance that the nationwide data and UC Irvine data agree on which properties are at risk of more than a foot of flooding from an extreme event.”
Federal programs to map flood hazards across the
“New, nationwide data sources have emerged from the private sector to meet this demand, but unfortunately, these models are missing the level of detail required to map flood risks accurately in urban areas,” Sanders said. “New models would benefit from the inclusion of more complete representations of drainage infrastructure such as levees, flood channels, culverts and storm drains, as well as bathymetric and hydrologic data.”
He and colleagues also point to a new strategy for better nationwide data.
“Collaborative flood modeling, with scientists and engineers using cutting-edge regional models in coordination with stakeholders, could create an economy of scale that lowers the overhead necessary to cover less wealthy and smaller communities while increasing flood awareness and preparedness across impacted populations,” Sanders said. “Flood risk awareness is critical for participation in flood insurance programs; more accurate data will help insurance companies identify insurable properties; and property owners will be better informed about the cost-effectiveness of flood-proofing.”
About the
Media access: Radio programs/stations may, for a fee, use an on-campus studio with a Comrex IP audio codec to interview UC Irvine faculty and experts, subject to availability and university approval. For more UC Irvine news, visit news.uci.edu. Additional resources for journalists may be found at https://news.uci.edu/media-resources.
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