John Baer: Will Kavanaugh impact midterm elections? I don’t see it. | John Baer
First blush suggests it will.
After all, media and much of the nation have obsessed over the process since early July when
First there were polarizing questions about Kavanaugh's stance (hence possible votes) on abortion rights and executive privilege.
Then came a divisive, emotional he said/she said over alleged sexual assault. And suddenly the world was watching.
Monday night, Trump, "on behalf of the nation" apologized to Kavanaugh for the "terrible pain and suffering" he (Kavanaugh, not Trump) and his family "were forced to endure."
So, what now?
One narrative suggests the process further enraged
This, the argument goes, would be retaliation for what many saw as
I'm not so sure. I mean about the argument.
No doubt there's anger. We've seen and heard the fury of women who suffered sexual assault without consequence to perpetrators. We've heard from women irate over a
But a ramped-up anti-
Plus, with most of a month until
(I'd note Trump's Access Hollywood tape came out a month before the 2016 election and caused little or no evident effect.)
As to claims from Trump and others that strident Democratic opposition to Kavanaugh, and public protest against him, amounts to, as Senate GOP Leader
I turn to national pundit
"Let me start with three little words: I don't know," he says. "It's impossible to say which party's emotions will endure to
He notes
Makes sense. But, again, will such use much change things?
"In the next week or two, look at registration numbers and national political money," she says. "If you see bumps either way, or national
Places to look for evidence, she says, include the Sixth and Seventh Districts just west and north of Philly, respectively. Both are newly redrawn open seats featuring female Democratic candidates (
But nobody really knows what happens on
And the Kavanaugh confirmation battle, above all else, just made our politics look so shabby. It made ordinary people seem inconsequential. It made pols involved seem solely set on political gain.
In short, it changed nothing. And that's why it won't impact the midterms.
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