Joe Battenfeld: Odds shifting in favor of Charlie Baker running for third term

Aug. 31—Gov. Charlie Baker is nearing a decision on his future amid new speculation that he now intends to seek a third term and keep alive his political ambitions, maybe even raising his national profile.

The Republican governor has said he'll announce this fall what his decision will be, and Democrats are nervously waiting for him to step aside so they can have a better shot at taking over the Corner Office.

But it may be tougher than they think.

Baker is showing no signs that he's thinking of packing it in, and in fact is ramping up his previously anemic fundraising operation.

The governor has a major in-person fundraiser scheduled Thursday at the home of public relations maven George Regan. The outdoor event was scheduled earlier this month but postponed after the invitation mistakenly listed University of Massachusetts President Marty Meehan as one of the hosts.

Baker has less than $500,000 in his campaign coffers, a small amount for a sitting governor. His lieutenant governor, Karyn Polito, has four times that amount in her campaign bank account.

But Baker is capable of quickly raising enough money to run a major statewide campaign. Polito could also use her funds to help support the GOP ticket.

Baker would face a Republican opponent, former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, if he did try for a third term.

But the GOP incumbent would be the favorite in the race, because even in heavily Democratic Massachusetts his approval ratings are unusually high.

So far the Democrats in the race include Harvard professor Danielle Allen, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz and former state Sen. Ben Downing.

Attorney General Maura Healey has not said whether she will jump into the gubernatorial ring.

Winning a third term would not only cement Baker as a powerful force in Massachusetts, but would escalate his national profile as one of the few Republican governors in blue states.

Baker could use his platform to win a leadership role in the Republican Governors' Association or even have his name thrown into the 2024 presidential ring. Or Baker could wait and decide to run for U.S. Senate when Sen. Elizabeth Warren's term is up in 2024. A Baker-Warren clash would be monumental.

Conservatives, especially the Donald Trump wing of the GOP, would bitterly oppose Baker if he tried to run nationally.

Baker's early mask mandate, and his moderate stances on issues like abortion rights have made him extremely unpopular with some conservatives.

But that likely wouldn't get in the way of a third term campaign. Most voters seem to side with Baker and his handling of the pandemic, according to the latest polls. His biggest hurdle may actually be winning his own party's endorsement.

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