Incidence of Long Term Disability Claims Predicted to Fall in 2019

TORONTO, Ontario, April 8 -- The Royal Bank of Canada issued the following news release:

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- RBC Insurance predicts year-over-year incidence rates of Long Term Disability (LTD) claims to decrease by 3.6% compared to 2018

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The RBC Insurance Group Long Term Disability (LTD) Forecast predicts the incidence of LTD claims to fall by 3.6 per cent compared to 2018 due to a slowing Canadian economy. Using a proprietary algorithm, RBC Insurance has discovered that new LTD claims are linked to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates. This information can help businesses prepare for future costs related to claims, ensure adequate staffing during critical seasons and most importantly, help employees get support when they need it the most.

"The RBC Insurance Group LTD forecast predicts a 3.6% decrease in LTD incidence rates in 2019 relative to 2018 due to a forecasted deceleration in GDP," says John Carinci, Vice President, Operations and Client Experience, RBC Insurance. "While still elevated on an overall basis, 2019 nonetheless marks a directional shift after two consecutive years of growth."

LTD claims impact both employees and business owners alike. Knowing this information allows businesses to better manage costs and ensure employees get the support they need so they can return to work healthy and productive, minimizing the impact to daily business operations.

How the RBC Insurance Group LTD Forecast works:

Based on research conducted by RBC Insurance, when GDP growth decreases, there is a corresponding decline in the incidence of LTD claims and vice versa. In both 2017 and 2018, the model successfully predicted year over year increases in the incidence of LTD claims that were relatively close to the actual rate experienced. It is believed that during challenging or uncertain times, workers can be concerned about job security and performance, creating significant mental and/or physiological stress. As economic outlook brightens and GDP growth accelerates, workers may begin to feel more secure, however that pent up stress and anxiety can take its toll, making them more likely to succumb to illness and take a leave from work to recoup.