Hurricane season starts with dry Louisiana forecast, but northern floodwater impacts

June 02-- Jun. 2--Water-weary Louisiana entered the 2019 hurricane season Saturday already dealing with record-high floodwaters and eyeing a potential tropical system near the Yucatan Peninsula, but historically the state doesn't see the season's impact until late summer.

Heavy rain in the Midwest has sent several Mississippi River tributaries to record heights, and at many stations the Mississippi has been at flood stage or higher for a record number of days.

Tropical systems can only make things worse, given that Louisiana is already experiencing high water, but the National Weather Service says the effects on Louisiana may not be as dire as they otherwise appear.

"Typically hurricane season for our area doesn't peak until August, usually mid-August through September," said National Weather Service New Orleans meteorologist Gavin Phillips.

And while some communities -- particularly those along the Atchafalaya River and in the Morganza Spillway's path -- have dealt for months with standing water and flooding from early spring rainfall, Phillips said, most of the capitol region is seeing a drier forecast ahead that could help.

The Baton Rouge area, he said, hasn't had any rainfall since May 19, a late-spring dry spell that's seen maybe once every five years. There should be some typical summer late-afternoon thunderstorms in the coming weeks, Phillips said, but still no significant rainfall predicted.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching an area of disturbed weather in Mexico that could form into the Atlantic basin's second named storm of the year, if conditions are right.

As of Saturday afternoon there was a 60 percent chance the system could develop into a tropical storm within a five-day period.

Phillips said forecasts are not showing any additional rain or impacts likely for Louisiana from that system.

But with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers set to open the Morganza Spillway Thursday to relieve the pressure on Mississippi levees, there's still going to be water on the ground in many areas.

If a named storm or hurricane were to impact the region in the 2019 season, it would continue a trend of Louisiana getting rain effects from nearby storms. The Florida Parishes in 2018 were clipped by the outer bands of Tropical Storm Gordon, the westernmost storm during last year's Atlantic hurricane season. And in 2017, Hurricane Harvey caused significant flooding in western Louisiana.

Typically, about 12 storms form annually, and forecasters are predicting close to an average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year.

Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting 13 storms, with five becoming hurricanes. Two are predicted to develop into Category 3 storms with winds reaching 111 mph or higher.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's predicts between nine and 15 named storms, four to eight of which could become hurricanes. The number includes two to four major hurricanes of a category 3, 4, or 5.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes including three major hurricanes, putting 2019's prediction in the middle ground.

The Colorado State forecasters say water in the Atlantic has been cooler than normal, so storms will have less fuel to develop into stronger storms. Last year, after Florida had a particularly hot summer, Hurricane Michael did significant damage when it came ashore in the Panhandle in October, considerably late in the season.

Louisiana typically sees hurricanes in the first half of the season, which runs to Nov. 30. The state climatologist, Barry Keim, said last year that a hurricane has never made landfall in Louisiana during November.

There has already been one named tropical storm this year. Andrea formed May 20 to the south of Bermuda, but weakened to a subtropical depression less than 24 hours after it formed.

The National Hurricane Center and a committee of the World Meteorological Organization update and maintain a list of hurricane names. Names are recycled every six years, unless a storm is so deadly or costly that it would be inappropriate to use it again. The list for 2019:

--Andrea

--Barry

--Chantal

--Dorian

--Erin

--Fernand

--Gabrielle

--Humberto

--Imelda

--Jerry

--Karen

--Lorenzo

--Melissa

--Nestor

--Olga

--Pablo

--Rebekah

--Sebastien

--Tanya

--Van

--Wendy

2019 Hurricane Preparedness Tips from the City of Baton Rouge:

-- Make a Family Communication Plan at www.brla.gov

-- Restock your emergency supply kit with the necessary items

-- Make sure your home is prepared

-- Trim or remove damaged trees and limbs

-- Secure and clear all gutters

-- Fuel your vehicles, generators, and gas cans. Consider purchasing a portable generator.

-- Use the BuddySystem™ to check on your neighbors, friends and family

-- Check your insurance coverage

-- Visit www.redstickready.com for more preparedness tips

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