Hurricane Sally threatens Gulf Coast with 9-foot surge, up to 30 inches of rain as tropics busy with 6 more systems

Hurricane Sally is slowly approaching the Gulf Coast as a dangerous Category 1 storm with a threat of 9-foot storm surges, up to 30-inches of rain to some parts and winds of 85 mph as its projected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, the tropics continue to remain active with Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Teddy and Tropical Storm Vicky in the Atlantic as well as three more areas with a chance to form into the next tropical depression or tropical storm.

Hurricane Sally, though, is the most dangerous of systems Tuesday, located as of 8 a.m. EDT about 65 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 105 miles south-southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi with sustained winds of 85 mph and 105 mph gusts, moving west-northwest at 2 mph.

Hurricane-force winds extend out 45 miles with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 125 miles.

“A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night,” said NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart. “On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning.”

A hurricane warning is in effect for east of the mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre, Florida while a tropical storm warning is in effect for east of Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida and from the mouth of the Pearl River west to Grand Isle, Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and metro New Orleans, which will have its levee system tested as the NHC projects 2-4 feet of surge there, but up to 9 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay.

A storm surge warning is in effect from the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa-Walton County line in Florida and Mobile Bay.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for Escambia and Santa Rosa counties.

“We don’t necessarily anticipate hurricane force winds in those areas at this time but we think it’s very likely to have tropical storm force winds,” said DeSantis, adding residents in any low-lying areas should heed evacuation orders.

President Donald Trump issued emergency declarations for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Monday, and on Twitter urged residents to listen to state and local leaders.

Sally had on Monday grown to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, but died back down to Category 1 status and is not projected to gain in strength before landfall.

The slow-moving storm, though, will bring a tremendous threat of heavy rain, from 10-20 inches with some isolated areas of 30 inches from the central Gulf Coast to the western Florida Panhandle.

“Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday,” Stewart said. “In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.”

As it moves inland, that flood threat will expand across the Southeast with 4-8 inches and some areas up to 12 inches across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas.

Sally’s flood threat isn’t just something for Gulf Coast residents to heed but also inland residents should prepare as well, NHC director Ken Graham told CNN in an interview Tuesday morning.

“It comes down so fast. Any rivers or streams, they become big problems. [The rain] piles up. That’s what becomes so incredibly dangerous,” Graham said. “All that rain is moving inland - a hundred miles inland.”

Some inland areas near rivers and streams could experience 4 to 6 feet of flood water, Stewart said. Anyone living in such an area should evacuate, he advised.

“[They] need to understand there is going to be extremely heavy rainfall, like what they may have never seen before,” Stewart said. “You don’t have to have a very powerful hurricane like a Category 3 hurricane to get significant storm surge.”

NHC experts found in a 2019 study, that 90 percent of hurricane related deaths are water related, and the major player responsible for those deaths was the storm surge, which accounted for 49 percent of hurricane related deaths. However, the interesting take away was the most powerful storm surges were seen not on the coast, but instead 100 miles inland, such as 2018u2032s Hurricane Florence, which flooded rivers from North Carolina’s coast through state with storm surge waters.

Some tornadoes could occur Monday morning in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane over the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, with the threat increasing inland later Monday and into Tuesday.

After Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast for the storm, and Sally should become post-tropical in three days or less, the NHC said.

Monday was busy in the tropics with the addition of Tropical Depression Rene, which dissipated by 5 p.m. It was the second time in recorded history that five named tropical cyclones were churning in the Atlantic at the same time, said meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

In 23 years of studying weather patterns, FOX 35 meteorologist Jayme King has never seen a hurricane season progress through the designated storm name list as quickly as the 2020 season. Wilfred is the last name left in the 2020 season. After Wilfred, hurricane specialists will begin using letters from the Greek alphabet to name storm; a tactic meteorologists have had to use only once before, in 2005, which had a total of 28 named storms.

“You had Katrina that year," King said. "Just a flurry of activity and it started ramping up in mid season, just took off. Just like now. It’s very hyperactive as we figured it would be. El Niño is not present. La Niña is full blossom allowing for very little shear.”

Sally first emerged as Tropical Depression 19 off the southeast coast of Florida on Friday night. The depression first moved across South Florida early Saturday morning near Miami with 35 mph sustained winds.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Paulette continues to grow in strength after passing directly over the entire island of Bermuda early Monday. The storm is 405 miles northeast of Bermuda, but no longer a threat to land.

At 5 a.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Paulette was moving northeast at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds maintaining 105 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach outward up to 230 miles.

Paulette brought heavy rains to Bermuda while also producing swells, generating life-threatening rip current and surf conditions as far away as the southeastern U.S., the NHC said.

Forming Monday morning, Tropical Storm Teddy grew out of Tropical Depression 20, which formed Saturday night over the central tropical Atlantic, and is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday and a Category 3 major hurricane headed in Bermuda’s general direction by Thursday with winds up to 125 mph, but at present is no threat to land.

As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, Teddy was located about 1,030 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph moving west-northwest at 12 mph with tropical-storm force winds extending out 115 miles. Large swells could begin to hit the Lesser Antilles and South America on Wednesday.

The formation of Teddy came 20 days earlier than the 19th storm of the 2005 season, which was actually not even classified until a post-season analysis found out that it should have been that season’s "T" storm on Oct. 4. That subtropical storm was unnamed, but Tropical Storm Tammy that year, formed one day later on Oct. 5.

Tropical Storm Vicky also spiraled into formation Monday morning, the NHC said. It first emerged as Tropical Depression 21 early Monday in the east Atlantic from a low pressure system.

As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, Vicky was located 500 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph moving northwest at 9 mph with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 105 miles.

Vicky is expected to weaken Tuesday and be downgraded to a depression by Wednesday as it’s expected to move over colder waters to the north and an area of strong, upper-level winds soon after, the NHC said.

The NHC continues to monitor other tropical developments in the already busy Atlantic.

First, a surface trough over the west-central Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Any development should be slow in the next few days as it meanders over the Gulf waters, the NHC said. It has a low, 10% chance of developing in the next two days and a 20% chance of developing in the next five.

Second, the NHC says a low-pressure system that formed off a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa has more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity and likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next couple of days. The system now a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving west at 10-15 mph. The NHC gives it a 50% chances of formation in the next two days, and 70% in the next five days.

Finally, a new system caught the NHC’s attention overnight located in a nontropical area in the far northeast Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. The low-pressure system is forecast to move south-southeast in the next few days though and could encounter warmer waters with the potential to grow into a system with tropical or subtropical characteristics. The NHC gives is a 10% chance to form in the next two days and 20% chance in the next five days.

Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. NOAA forecast this year an estimated 19 to 25 named storms was possible before the end of season -- it was the largest forecast NOAA ever predicted.

Orlando Sentinel staff writers Lisa Garza, Paola Perez, Katie Rice, Lynnette Cantos and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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